Over the course of the past week Hurricane Fiona moved north through the Atlantic coming close to Bermuda, but ultimately making landfall on Friday night (local time) in Nova Scotia, Canada as a Category 2 storm. It has since weakened to a tropical storm and is currently located in the middle of the Gulf of St. Lawrence where it will continue travelling north, making a second landfall near Mutton Bay, Newfoundland and Labrador over the course of the next day or so.
Hurricane Fiona has become the storm with the lowest central pressure, of ca. 930mb, to ever impact Canada. While there is a widespread impact from both wind, rain, and flooding, the total damage so far does not seem to be catastrophic as population density in the landfall region is not very dense. At this time and based on preliminary estimates, we do not expect that this storm will have a meaningful impact on our ILS portfolios.
Tropical Storm Ian
Tropical Storm Ian is currently ca. 400km south-west of Jamaica, and is travelling north-west up into the Gulf of Mexico over the coming few days. While currently only a tropical storm, due to warm sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and Gulf, many predictions have it strengthening into a major hurricane sometime on Tuesday as it passes over western Cuba and into the Gulf.
There is currently large uncertainty around where Hurricane Ian will make landfall in the US, and what strength it will be. Latest predictions have it making landfall with the US sometime late Wednesday or early Thursday (local time), most likely with Florida, but this could be anywhere from Fort Myers in the south and Pensacola in the north-west. Depending on where Ian makes landfall and at what strength will have a large impact on the amount of damage caused. An impact on densely populated areas of Florida, such as in the Tempa region, would cause significant industry losses and would very likely also affect our ILS portfolios to a substantial degree. On the other hand, a landfall in the panhandle region further north would significantly reduce the risk to the industry and to ILS portfolios, with the possibility of not seeing any impact at all in our funds.
As this is an active situation, and one that may have impact on Twelve Capital positions we will be monitoring the situation closely as it develops.
Over the weekend Typhoon Noru passed over the Philippines as a category 4 storm. Its path took it over the north of the country ca. 100km north of the capital Manila. It is likely to have caused significant insured losses, at least by local standards. It is well possible, that this event can trigger a payout of the remaining principal of the already partially-defaulted IBRD Cat Bond covering that peril. Readers are reminded that commingled funds managed by Twelve Capital are not significant holders of this transaction. Our publicly available Cat Bond and ILS funds hold less than 0.04% of NAV in this transaction.
Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events that occur.