Twelve Capital Event Update

11 September 2023

Hurricane situation

During the past week, two further named storms have developed in the Atlantic: Lee and Margot. Lee formed off the west coast of Africa and as it headed across the Atlantic, underwent rapid intensification, fuelled by warm sea surface temperatures, to briefly become a Category 5 storm and the next major hurricane of the season. One interesting feature of Hurricane Lee is that the opposing factors of warm sea surface temperatures and vertical wind-shear, which led to heightened uncertainty in the pre-season forecasts, has been a key factor in the oscillation of storm intensity from a Category 5 down to a Category 2 and back to a Category 3, all within a matter of days. Hurricane Lee is currently north of British Virgin Islands and forecasts have the storm making a northward turn in the coming days directing it away from the U.S. east coast. However, we will continue to monitor Hurricane Lee closely as there is still a threat of impact to Bermuda, Northeast U.S. and Canada.

Tropical Storm Margot also formed on the west coast of Africa, but has remained far out in the Atlantic where it is expected to remain and is therefore not expected to cause any impact.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are currently two areas of low pressure, one located to the southwest of Cape Verde and one located to the southeast of Cape Verde. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has assigned a 10% and 50% probability of tropical storm formation over the next 7 days, respectively.

Earthquake in Morocco

On Friday 8 September, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck in Morocco, just south of the city of Marrakesh, which is the strongest recorded earthquake on record in Morocco. As of writing, over 2,000 deaths have been reported. Twelve Capital does not expect any impact from this event.

Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor relevant potential and actual catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on new major events which occur.