Twelve Capital Event Update

28 August 2023

Hurricane situation

Hurricane Franklin has continued to develop since forming as a Tropical Storm last week, currently it is located ca. 750km east of the Bahamas and travelling in a north-easterly direction. It is a Category 2 storm at the moment, but predicted to strengthen into a Category 4 storm as it passes close to Bermuda in about two days’ time, before heading out further into the Atlantic.

During the past week two more named storms have formed in the Atlantic, Harold, and Idalia. Harold formed in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near the Texas-Mexico border as a Tropical Storm before dissipating quite quickly, no impact to Twelve Capital’s positions is expected from this event.

The more important event is Tropical Storm Idalia, which has been forming over the past few days off of the east coast of the Yucutan Peninsula. During the past 48 hours, the storm strengthened and is currently a Tropical Storm, but predictions point to at least a Category 2 (and potentially Category 3) Hurricane when it is expected to make landfall in Florida. It is currently located ca. 200km east of Cancun, Mexico and headed north. US landfall is likely to happen either on late Tuesday evening or early morning Wednesday (local time). The exact landfall location is uncertain at the moment, with most models showing a range between Crawfordville, FL and Tampa, FL. Given large uncertainty around the specific strength and landfall location in Florida, makes initial estimates of damages very challenging. Twelve Capital has exposure to US Hurricane events in Florida, but the range of impacts will depend heavily on strength and landfall location.

Outside of the Atlantic, it is also remaining busy with Tropical Storm Irwin ca. 1,500km west of Jalisco, Mexico and continuing to travel west. Currently it is predicted to weaken over the coming days as it heads towards Hawaii, and potentially dissipate before it reaches the islands.

In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Damrey remains out in the ocean ca. 300km east of Sendai, Japan and travelling back out into the ocean. Typhoon Saola has turned back on itself and is predicted to head towards Taiwan and mainland China, potentially making landfall in Taiwan in about 72 hours as a Category 4 storm. The placement of landfall is very uncertain at the moment as it may even miss Taiwan completely. Twelve Capital does not expect any impact from this event.

Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor relevant potential and actual catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on new major events which occur.