Twelve Capital Event Update

21 August 2023

Hurricane situation

We are beginning to enter into the peak of the Hurricane Season, and during the past week we have seen three Named Storms form in the Atlantic, plus two additional on-going disturbances.

Tropical Storm Emily formed off the west-coast of Africa, and has subsequently stayed in the middle of the Atlantic, where it is forecast to move northwards and recurve away from mainland U.S.

Tropical Storm Franklin is currently located in the Caribbean Sea approximately 300km south of the Dominican Republic. Franklin is expected to move northwards and make landfall in the Dominican Republic in the next couple of days as a Tropical Storm. After landfall, the storm is forecast to strengthen as it curves back into the Atlantic and away from mainland U.S.

Tropical Storm Gert formed off the west-coast of Africa, and is currently located around 500km east of the Lesser Antilles. However, the system has struggled to develop and is expected to dissipate over the coming days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic there are two further disturbances, both with a 70% probability of formation over the next seven days. The first, “Invest 91L”, is currently located in the Gulf of Mexico and is heading westwards toward the Texas-Mexico border, with landfall expected by Tuesday. The second disturbance, “Invest 92L”, is located just south of Cape Verde, but is too early to accurately forecast its path.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Hilary made landfall over the weekend in Baja California, Mexico, and continued to move northward into Southern California. The storm has continued to weaken and whilst there is limited wind-driven damage reported, intense precipitation has caused flash flooding across many regions in Southern California (including Los Angeles), which will be important to monitor over the coming days. During the summer months, Southern California usually experiences limited rainfall, often more exposed to drought conditions and potential wildfires. Twelve Capital has positions with exposure to California, however the wind and flood exposure in particular is limited, with the event more likely to add to the aggregate erosion of exposed catastrophe bonds.

Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor relevant potential and actual catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on new major events which occur.