Over the past week, no further named storms have been registered in the Atlantic. There are currently two areas of low pressure located off the west coast of Africa, both of which have been assigned a 20% probability of hurricane formation over the next 7 days.
In Japan, Typhoon Lan is expected to make landfall during the morning of August 15th in the Wakayama prefecture, most likely as a Category 1 storm. Over the past few days, Lan has weakened from Category 4 to 2 as it approached mainland Japan, but Typhoon-force winds and heavy rainfall are still expected. The system is forecasted to move north through Japan, potentially impacting the nearby cities of Osaka and Kyoto, albeit the system is projected to further weaken before reaching these more inland cities. As the event is still ongoing, there is a high level of uncertainty regarding the location and strength of the typhoon. Twelve Capital does have positions in Japan, but based on the current forecasts does not expect much of an impact on these.
Wildfires have continued to impact Hawaii, mainly on the island of Maui, driven by dry and windy conditions, which were exacerbated by the by-passing Hurricane Dora to the south. The town of Lahaina has experienced severe damage, with currently recorded 93 deaths and current estimates of over 2,000 buildings destroyed. Twelve Capital has limited wildfire exposure in its portfolios, with Hawaii contributing only a small fraction to this exposure and as such, the wildfires are not expected to cause a direct loss to any positions. However, Twelve Capital continues to track for aggregate erosion across relevant positions.
Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor relevant potential and actual catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on new major events which occur.