Twelve Capital Event Update

31 May 2024

With the official commencement of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Twelve Capital is once again issuing regular event updates. Initially updates will be provided every second week, increasing to a weekly schedule during the peak of the season. In the event of significant developments, ad-hoc updates will be issued.

The 2024 season is predicted to have an “above-average” activity, this is being driven by the primary signals; warm sea surface temperature, and a likely reduction of El Niño. Warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic provide more energy for hurricanes to form, while a reduction in El Niño means that there is a change in trade winds which otherwise would help to inhibit hurricane formation.

It is important to remember that a higher sea surface temperature and more neutral ENSO, while conducive to higher hurricane activity, does not have a direct correlation to more losses from Cat Bonds. Catastrophe bonds require meaningful hurricanes to make landfall in populated places, which are still “tail” events even in a more active season.

Please refer below to the current predictions from a number of institutions:

* A Major Hurricane is that of Category 3 and above. These predictions do not make any assessment of landfall probability.

There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Basin and no hurricane formation is expected in the next seven days.

As always, Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.