On 2 July, Hurricane Elsa became the first official hurricane of the 2021 season. Elsa has, however, subsequently weakened to tropical storm strength and is expected to pass in a north-westward direction over Cuba during the course of today, Monday 5 July.
The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) suggests that Elsa’s path will continue to move towards the northwest before turning northward over the Florida Keys. After passing over the Florida Keys, the storm is expected to continue turning to the northeast before making landfall on the west coast of Florida, as a tropical storm only, late Tuesday 6 July or early Wednesday 7 July.
At current forecast intensity levels and projected path, Hurricane Elsa is not expected to have any material impact on the ILS market or Twelve Capital’s portfolios.
A number of wildfires have ignited across British Columbia, Canada following lightning strikes and a record-breaking heatwave in the West of Canada and northwest U.S. At the time of writing, the British Columbia Wildfire Dashboard reports 196 active fires with 67.3% caused by lightning strikes.
As seen in recent years wildfire risk remains prevalent in North America and therefore Twelve Capital continues to be underweight in this risk.
Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events that occur.