Twelve Capital Event Update – 17 June 2019

17 June 2019


No new natural catastrophe events took place over the last two weeks that would be expected to cause major insured industry losses.

Update on ongoing/occurred events

The Ebola pandemic in the Congo – where the initial outbreak was officially announced on 1 August 2018 by the Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo – has now spread to neighbouring Uganda. Therefore, the likelihood of the World Bank’s IBRD pandemic bond (CAR 111-112) being triggered has now increased substantially. It seems that the disease has now spread across borders which is one of the conditions that needs to be fulfilled in order to trigger a pay-out of the Cat Bond. Twelve Capital does not hold this bond in its pooled funds.

Other recent events

The following noteworthy natural events recently occurred during May and early June although, at present, these events are not expected to have a significant impact on Twelve Capital’s portfolios, or insured loss estimates have not yet been issued.

Severe convective storms in the US

During May, a series of US convective storms across the Midwest, Central Plains and Northeast led to a number of tornadoes and flooding. The expected insured loss estimate has now risen from USD 1 billion to about USD 2 billion (source: AON). This is not expected to have a significant direct impact on portfolios managed by Twelve Capital.

Severe weather/hail storm in Germany

There was a major storm in Germany due to severe convective weather early last week, with most of the damage incurred near the area of Munich. The insured losses estimated at the time of writing are between EUR 400m and 600m. This is not expected to have an impact on portfolios managed by Twelve Capital.

Monday, 17 June 2019