Twelve Capital is once again issuing regular event updates following the official commencement of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Initially updates will be provided every second week, increasing to a weekly schedule during the peak of the season. In the event of significant developments, ad-hoc updates will be issued.
The 2023 season is predicted to have “near-average” activity. However, the forecasts this year have cited more uncertainty than usual, primarily due to conflicting signals between a shift to an El Niño environment, and a warmer than usual tropical and subtropical Atlantic. This may cause greater dispersion amongst hurricane forecasts. You can see below the current predictions from a number of institutions:
|Named Storms||Hurricanes||Major Hurricanes*|
|1991 – 2020 Average||14||7||3|
|Colorado State University||14||7||3|
|NOAA||12 – 17||5 – 9||1 – 4|
|Tropical Storm Risk||13||6||2|
Tropical Storm Arlene was the first named storm of the 2023 season, forming in the Gulf of Mexico last week. The storm has since been downgraded to a remnant low and the system is expected to continue weakening in the coming days. Given the low strength and path of the system southwards away from the U.S., there is no expected impact to any of the Twelve Capital positions.
There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Basin and no hurricane formation is expected in the next seven days.
As always, Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.
* A Major Hurricane is that of Category 3 and above. These predictions do not make any assessment of landfall probability.