Tropical storm Fred is currently situated in the Gulf of Mexico ca. 400km west of Tampa. It is a tropical storm and is not predicted to strengthen into a hurricane. Its path is expected to take it into Pensacola, FL within the next 24 hours, as it heads into the US mainland towards Atlanta before dissipating into a tropical depression. Fred is unlikely to cause major damage and Twelve Capital does not expect any impact on its positions.
Tropical Storm Grace formed over the weekend and is expected to travel over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba over the coming days, as a tropical depression before it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. Current predictions have it strengthening slightly in the Gulf to a tropical storm before making landfall on the border of Mexico and the United States in approximately five days. Should these forecasts turn out to be correct, no impact on Twelve Capital’s ILS portfolios is expected.
There is an additional system forming in the Atlantic off of the east coast of Bermuda, but predictions have this becoming a tropical storm and staying out in the Atlantic without causing any harm to properties.
On 14 August a 7.2 magnitude earthquake hit Haiti at a depth of 10km. There has been widespread damage with over 1200 fatalities reported so far. The 2010 earthquake was of a similar magnitude, but struck much closer to the capital Port-au-Prince. Early indications are that this event should not be as damaging. Twelve Capital does not expect any impact of this event on its ILS portfolios.
Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events that occur.