Twelve Capital Event Update - 28 October 2019

Last regular event update of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season
Until the start of the hurricane season 2020, Twelve Capital will continue to issue event reports on an ad-hoc basis in the case of substantial news flow.

Update Typhoon Hagibis
As previously reported, Typhoon Hagibis made landfall on 12 October 2019 in Izu Peninsula, Japan, equivalent to a category 1 or a weak category 2 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of about 145km/h up to 155km/h. Hagibis caused severe flood and wind damage across various prefectures in the North-Eastern part of Japan. One of the most affected prefectures was Nagano.
Last week, AIR has released their industry loss estimates which range from USD 8-16bn, with slightly more than half of that figure due to inland flooding. According to AIR, the wide range in these loss figures reflects the uncertainty that is due to the complexity of this event.

Twelve Capital reiterates that it is too early to determine reliable estimates for the ultimate impact on portfolios. Whilst the firm believes that from a performance impact perspective, losses in any ILS portfolios will likely be minimal, there is a certain chance for collateral-trapping, which would negatively impact capacity at the upcoming renewals.

California wildfires
California continues to be impacted by several wildfires, facilitated by strong hot winds and by dry vegetation. As a precautionary measure, many utility companies have switched off power lines resulting in blackouts across the state. At this point, none of the current wildfires poses a significant threat to areas with high population density. Hence, Twelve Capital does not expect any impact on ILS portfolios at this time.

Other recent events
No other noteworthy events have occurred since last week.

Monday, 28 October 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 21 October 2019

Update Typhoon Hagibis
Typhoon Hagibis made landfall on 12 October 2019 in Izu Peninsula, Japan, equivalent to a category 1 or a weak category 2 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of about 145km/h up to 155km/h.
Hagibis caused severe flood and wind damage across various prefectures in the North-Eastern part of Japan. One of the most affected prefectures was Nagano.
According to 7pm updates from NHK online Japanese Newspapers as at 20 October 2019, it is known that 80 people died with 17 people still missing. Levees at 135 different locations on 71 rivers across seven prefectures collapsed. According to NHK more than 52’400 homes were flooded and more than 4’100 houses were destroyed or partially damaged.
In 2018, the southern part of Japan was affected by severe rain-driven floods. More than 12’000 structures were reported as affected across 12 prefectures. The modelled losses at that time were USD 2-4bn. As at the end of 2018, Aon Benfield reported the insured loss to be USD 2.7bn.
The figures mentioned above may indicate that Typhoon Hagibis flood driven market losses (excluding the wind-driven impact) may end up in the double-digit billion range. However, it should be noted that the final pay-out of flood claims will be dependent upon the underlying exposure affected and with that firm estimates are more difficult to quantify. Generally, the pay-outs are typically stepped according to the level of water damage sustained and limited by the so-called “sub-ordinary” policy limits, which represent a fraction of the total sum insured of the subject structures affected.

Twelve Capital reiterates that at this stage, it is too early to determine reliable estimates for economic or insured losses. None of the major modelling companies have yet released any market loss indications (although anticipated to do so this upcoming week), in line with the firm’s expectation that the ultimate assessment of the insured losses for this event may be a more extended process than usual.
The above-mentioned figures remain highly uncertain and have to be viewed with caution.

Given the current level of information, Twelve Capital expects no impact on Cat Bond exposures. However, there may be some potential performance impact and certainly erosion of deductibles to selected private collateralised retrocession contracts with exposure to Japan.

Update “Saddleridge wildfire” in California
According to the California Fire authority, 80% of the “Saddleridge fire” is contained. All evacuation orders are now lifted. Latest reports indicate that 31 structures have been damaged. On this basis, Twelve Capital does not see the potential for substantial insured losses or any impact on its ILS portfolios.

Other recent eventsTropical Storm Nestor has made landfall in Florida as a Tropical storm in the panhandle of Florida on 19 October 2019 with winds of up 96km/h. Local tornadoes were reported with some homes and businesses damaged across the state. No major impact on the insurance market and ILS portfolios expected.

Monday, 21 October 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 14 October 2019

Typhoon Hagibis
Typhoon Hagibis made landfall around 12:00 MESZ on 12 October 2019 in Izu Peninsula, Japan.
Depending on sources the intensity at landfall was equivalent to a category 1 or a weak category 2 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of about 145 km/h up to 155km/h.
Hagibis caused severe flood and wind damage across various prefectures in the northeastern part of Japan before passing over the Pacific Ocean early Sunday morning. Transport and communication systems were highly impacted and large-scale power outages occurred following the typhoon. Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. announced on Sunday that it expects power to be restored throughout the main affected areas over the next few hours. According to various Japanese Newspapers as at 9 p.m. on Sunday local time, the typhoon had claimed the lives of 34 people in 10 prefectures, with 17 people missing.

Known Damage
Unprecedented rainfall was experienced in many prefectures, causing levees to break, river defences to fail or dams to execute emergency discharges.
Amongst the worst hit prefectures,  are Nagano and Fukushima prefectures, west and north of Tokyo, respectively, where the Chikuma River and Abukuma River burst their banks and caused severe flooding in residential and industrial areas including transport stations.

Initial assessment
At this stage, it is too early  to determine reliable estimates for economic or insured losses.
Furthermore, Twelve Capital expects the ultimate assessment of the insured losses for this event to be a more complex and therefore  more extended process than usual.
This veiw is primarily driven by Twelve Capital’s expectation that the major drivers for the insured losses for Typhoon Hagibis will be flood claims. Generally, these type of claims take more time to be reported and therefore ultimately reliably assessed than purely wind-driven losses.
Previous events however may provide some indication  of possible loss ranges for the impact of Typhoon Hagibis on an insured market level.

Similar events in the past:
Typhoon Faxai
Faxai made landfall in September 2019 in a comparable location and with a comparable intensity to Hagibis, but with substantially less flood damage reported. It is estimated to have caused an insured market loss of USD 3- 9bn, depending on the different modelling agents.

Japan Floods in 2018
In 2018, the southern part of Japan was affected by severe rain-driven floods. More than 12'000 structures were reported as affected across 12 prefectures. According to AIR the insured loss of flood event in 2018 was estimated to be between USD 2-4bn. As at the end of 2018, Aon Benfield reported the insured loss to be USD 2.7bn. A comparison of the population density of the areas affected by the 2018 flood losses with the population density of the areas impacted by Typhoon Hagibis (assuming similar flood impacts), indicates that flood driven market losses (excluding the wind-driven impact) may end up in at least, the range of USD 3-5bn.

External sources: 
This morning Bloomberg Intelligence indicated the Typhoon Hagibis insured loss range to be possibly within USD 5-10bn worth of insurance claims.
The  above-mentioned figures are highly uncertain and have to be considered with caution. The ultimate assessment of insured losses for this event will be more complex and therefore are expected to require a more extended process than is usual.
The current level of information indicates limited impact (if any) on cat bond exposures and potentially, some performance impact including erosion of deductibles, to selected private collateralised retrocession contracts with exposure to Japan.
Twelve Capital will monitor the situation over the forthcoming days closely and issue a more detailed update with impact estimates once information and corresponding assessments are deemed more reliable. 

Other recent events
Wildfires in California 2019
According to the California Fire Authority spokesman, Scott McLean “… September and October are the worst two months historically every year in California…”, however, the current exposure is only six fires covering an area of 61 km2, of which 56% is already contained. That compares with 2’047 km2 in 2017 and 3’545 km2 in 2018, which were two of the worst years in history with regards to insured wildfire losses.
So far, the wildfire affected area in 2019 is  just a fraction of affected areas of the previous two years. On the other hand, with the “Saddleridge fire” being very close to the city of Los Angeles, there is potential for significant fire losses, should the fire push southward with the dry Santa Ana winds. As at today 42% of the “Saddleridge fire” exposed area is reported to be contained. Some of the 100’000 people evacuated over the last few days have been allowed to return home.
On this basis and unless the Saddleridge fire develops adversely, Twelve Capital does not see the potential for substantial insured losses for its portfolios.

Monday, 14 October 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 7 October 2019

Summary
There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic basin. Whilst some low-pressure areas are currently being monitored and might turn into tropical storms, they are not expected to cause a threat to populated areas.
In the North-East Pacific, there are currently no active storms or areas where tropical cyclone formation is likely over the next days.
In the West Pacific, there is currently one tropical storm system (named “Hagibis”) on approach towards Japan. Latest model indications show that this system will pass east of the main Japanese islands in around five days. As always, significant uncertainty with regards to track and intensity (currently a cat 3 hurricane) remain at this early stage and Twelve Capital will actively monitor the system.

Other recent events
There have been no noteworthy additional events in the past week. Whilst none of the recent events cause significant concern on an individual basis, some partial deductible erosion is possible in aggregate contracts, especially from typhoon Faxai. In Cat Bond transactions, this is already fully reflected in broker valuations. In Private ILS transactions, this is reflected through the fair valuation approach.

Monday, 7 October 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 23 September 2019

Hurricane Dorian
Given current industry loss estimates, Twelve Capital’s expectation remains that this event will have only a marginal impact on ILS portfolios, if any. Currently, the total insured market loss estimates for Hurricane Dorian across the Bahamas, US and Canada vary from roughly USD 3bn on the lower end up to USD 10bn at the high end. The driver of these estimated losses remains the impact on the Bahamas where various sources indicate that the economic damage and social impact is significant.

Typhoon Faxai
Typhoon Faxai, which made landfall 8/9 September just east of Tokyo, caused sustained winds, power outages and transport disruption as well as infrastructure damage. Insured losses were estimated to be somewhere between USD 3bn and USD 7bn by major modelling companies last week. Furthermore, last week, two of the three major insurance companies (with roughly 30% market share in non-life Japanese domestic insurance, by net premiums written) published their initial loss estimates. These were in the range of USD 1bn for each company. Grossing up these estimates to a total insured market loss would indicate that Typhoon Faxai is currently expected to have caused an insured market loss of USD 3bn to USD 4bn, i.e. roughly in line with the modelled loss estimates.

Given the loss development history experienced with Typhoon Jebi in 2018, Twelve Capital still considers that these initial estimated losses should be treated with corresponding caution. Twelve Capital is in touch with parties to try to establish how Typhoon Faxai might resemble Typhoon Jebi from a meteorological perspective (e.g. wind field symmetry and peak wind gusts at landfall) as well as from a modelled impact perspective.  With that in mind, Twelve Capital is expecting further validation of initial loss estimates of Typhoon Faxai and evaluation as to whether these initial loss estimates could experience a similar level of development as the market experienced with Typhoon Jebi.

The major exposure in Twelve Capital’s ILS portfolios to this type of event stems from collateralised reinsurance instruments in Private ILS transactions. At the level of the market loss indicated above, Twelve Capital does not expect any significant impact on ILS portfolios from this single event. In combination with the impact of Hurricane Dorian, however, the partial erosion of some underlying protection could be expected.

Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor the evolution and impact updates of the two events outlined above and will issue updates as more reliable estimates about insured losses and combined estimated impacts become available.

Tropical Storm Imelda
Tropical Storm Imelda quickly developed and made landfall along the coast of Texas on September 17, before slowly moving inland bringing torrential rains across the state. At least one person was killed. Imelda made landfall as a 65 km/h storm near Freeport, Texas, later bringing more flooding rains to the state, especially near Houston in the greater Beaumont region. Total economic losses were expected to be in the hundreds of millions of US dollars. Most Imelda-related damage was due to flooding so a lower-than-normal portion of the economic cost will be covered by private insurance market. No significant impact on Twelve ILS portfolios is expected from this event.

Flooding in Spain
Torrential rain in mid-September resulted in major flooding in south-eastern and central Spain. This was due to a cut-off low pressure area, which led to up to 370mm of rain falling between September 11 and 15. The floods claimed seven lives and the insured losses for these floods are expected to exceed EUR287m (USD 318m) alone. Preliminary estimates of total economic losses indicate that the final bill may well exceed EUR 1.66bn (USD1.83bn). The worst-affected areas were the autonomous regions of Valencia, Murcia, and Andalusia. 

Other ongoing events
There are a number of storms that are developing at the time of publication.

Atlantic
There are three active systems, including two tropical storms, Tropical Storm Jerry and Tropical Storm Karen, as well as a tropical system ‘Invest 13’ which will be named Lorenzo, the latter emerging this morning from the west coast of Africa. There is no imminent threat of landfall over the next 3 to 5 days expected from these systems. Jerry is expected to curve away from the US coast, while Karen is expected to travel north from the Caribbean towards Bermuda. Invest 13 has only just emerged so any forecasts are relatively uncertain, however, initial indications show a gradual strengthening to a strong hurricane and a corresponding curving path away from the US mainland. Twelve Capital will continue to monitor these developing events.

East Pacific
Three active systems are also present in this area. Tropical Storm Kiko is moving away from the US west coast towards Hawaii in a ‘zigzag’ manner. It is currently a tropical storm and is expected to become weaker; there is no imminent threat to land. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Lorena made landfall over the weekend on the western Coast of Mexico. A tropical depression is the weakest form of tropical cyclone, so no major impact is expected for the insurance industry. Economic damage will be driven by heavy rainfall and flash floods. Tropical Depression Mario is expected to make landfall in Baja California over the next 24 to 48 hours. Twelve Capital does not expect any major damage here either in terms of insured losses.


West Pacific
Tapah is curving between Korea and Japan as a tropical storm and is expected to make landfall in the northern tip of Japan over the next 24 to 48 hours. This event is being monitored. No major damage is expected if the storm’s strength remains at tropical storm level.


Earthquake in Albania
An earthquake of 5.6 magnitude with an only slightly weaker aftershock shook the Albanian port of Durres on Saturday and also the capital Tirana. The country’s Ministry of Defence declared this to be the most powerful earthquake experienced in Albania in 30 years. Although a number of buildings were damaged, there was no impact expected on portfolios managed by Twelve Capital.

Monday, 23 September 2019

Twelve Capital expands its distribution efforts into Australia and New Zealand by partnering with Allen Partners

Please click here to download the media release.

Wednesday, 11 September 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 9 September 2019

Hurricane Dorian
Dorian has missed the mainland of North Carolina, having previously also avoided landfall in Florida. The eye of the storm briefly touched land near Cape Lookout as a category 1 hurricane on Friday 6 September, but did not make full landfall in any high value areas. The storm has in the meantime passed Nova Scotia, Canada and is expected to fully dissipate over open water in the next couple of days.

Given its close proximity to the US coastline for several days, Dorian will have probably still caused extensive damage from wind and storm surge across Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. It is unlikely that these will cause major concerns for the ILS portfolios managed by Twelve Capital, based on current industry loss estimates:
- USD 1bn to USD 3.3bn with an estimated average loss of USD 1.5bn for losses caused in the US.
- USD 0.8bn to USD 4.5bn for insured losses in the Bahamas and a corresponding estimated average loss of USD 2.5bn.

It should be noted that in the Bahamas various sources indicate that the economic damage may be more than double the insured losses thereby reaching up to USD 8bn. 

Typhoon Faxai
In Japan, Typhoon Faxai has made landfall as a category 3 according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) with sustained winds of ca. 180 km/h near Chiba City (Prefecture of Chiba) just east of Tokyo, in the early hours of 5 a.m. Japan Standard Time, i.e. around 10 p.m. Sunday night Eastern European Time.

Typhoon Faxai caused power outages in the Tokyo region affecting more than one million people. Despite the strong winds with potential to cause a reasonable amount of damage, initial reports found in international news publications so far indicate moderate damage to property and cars from wind and flooding. Preliminary modelling figures indicate a wide range of possible outcomes, from very little damage (less than USD 200m insured losses) up to mid double digit USD bn insured market losses, with corresponding significant uncertainty about the ultimate impact.

Notably, Tokyo is a modern and largely well-constructed city with flood and surge protection infrastructure that reduces the vulnerability against storm surge and flood. However, it is currently too early to suggest a reliable view on the impact of this event on insured values. The storm system is currently moving back eastwards out to the sea where it is expected to weaken and dissolve over the next few days.
Twelve Capital continues to monitor closely the impact of this event and will issue corresponding updates as soon as more accurate and more reliable estimates about insured losses are available.

Please click on the link below for the track of Typhoon Faxai (source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)).

Track Typhoon Faxai

Other recent events
Typhoon Lingling
Typhoon Lingling has moved across South- and North Korea during the weekend. It made landfall on the island of Jeju as a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Wind scale and killed at least three people in South Korea. The damage in North Korea is unknown at this point, due to restrictions on media reporting. Overall, Twelve Capital does not expect this event to impact ILS portfolios.

Monday, 9 September 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 26 August 2019

Summary

The fourth tropical storm in this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, Dorian, has formed around 600km Southeast of the Lesser Antilles. The system is expected to gradually strengthen into a category 1 hurricane by Wednesday with a trajectory towards the Dominican Republic. Afterwards, the current forecast expects the system to decay and to weaken into a much less powerful tropical depression. Should these forecasts turn out to be accurate, Twelve Capital does not expect any significant impact on the ILS market.

Another tropical depression East off the coast of Georgia could potentially strengthen into a weak tropical storm by Tuesday, but is expected to head Northeast into the Atlantic Ocean anyways with no impact expected.

Further information has been released on Typhoon Lekima, which recently made landfall in China as a category 2 typhoon. The economic loss estimates have been updated to about USD 7.6bn, while the insured loss was recently put at USD 855m (source: AIR Worldwide). At this point in time, Twelve Capital does not believe that this will have a significant impact on its portfolios.

In the Pacific a few hundred kilometres from the coast of Mexico, Tropical Cyclone Ivo has weakened over the weekend to a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds not exceeding 50 km/h. The storm is forecasted to get even weaker and to dissipate over the next days.

Furthermore, Tropical Storm Bailu hit Taiwan with large amounts of rain. Bailu is currently no longer a tropical storm but still has large rainfall potential for China over the coming days. No significant impact on the ILS market and on Twelve Capital Funds is expected.

Other recent events

No other events have occurred since the last publication that would call for investor attention.

Monday, 26 August 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 12 August 2019

Summary

No new natural catastrophe events took place over the last two weeks that would be expected to cause major insured industry losses.

As the peak Atlantic hurricane season 2019 begins, there have been several updates to forecasts of the number of named storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has slightly updated its May forecast to 10-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes (Category 3+) during the season. This takes into consideration the two named storms (Andrea and Barry) which have already occurred.

Other recent events

The following noteworthy natural events recently occurred during early August although, at present, either these events are not expected to have a significant impact on Twelve Capital’s portfolios, or insured loss estimates have not yet been issued.

Typhoon Lekima
This storm made landfall in Zhejiang province, China, more than 300 km south of Shanghai on 9 August as a category 2 typhoon with winds recorded of 175 km/h. In the province of Zhejiang, over a million people were evacuated. Several dozen people died or are still missing. Over 30'000 houses appear to have been damaged. Since making landfall, Lekima has been downgraded to a tropical storm moving north/north-eastwards in China. The risk of heavy rains, flood and landslides continues.

Initial estimates from various media sources indicated economic losses in range of USD 2.0-2.6 billion. As the event is still ongoing, these initial estimates should be taken with a corresponding degree of caution. Having said this, the so-called protection gap, i.e. the difference between the economic damage and the insured loss, is generally significant in China, so the actual insured loss from Typhoon Lekima is expected to be materially lower.

Typhoon Francisco
This category 1 typhoon made landfall in Japan on 5 August near Miyazaki. Typhoon Francisco has injured at least two people and caused significant travel disruptions, according to local media. Peak wind speeds of 142.6 km/h were reported in Miyazaki. Heavy rainfall and localised flooding in Japan as well as South Korea left people injured and disrupted local transport but no major damage to property has been reported so far.

Luxembourg Tornado
A tornado damaged around 160 buildings in Luxembourg over the course of the weekend. Strong tornadoes are relatively rare in western Europe hence this event has received considerable media attention. Nevertheless, the economic damage and the impact on reinsurance contracts is likely to be minimal with no impact expected on ILS funds.

Monday, 12 August 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update 29 July 2019

Summary
No new natural catastrophe events took place over the last two weeks that would be expected to cause major insured industry losses.

Estimates of insured losses are now coming in for Tropical Storm Barry, which took place on 13 July and made landfall in Louisiana. These range from USD 300m to USD 600m, excluding any claims which will be the responsibility of the US National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Currently, Twelve Capital does not expect this tropical storm to have a noticeable impact on the portfolios it manages. As usual, Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor the ongoing situation and will issue updated event reports if the current situation is deemed to have changed materially.

Elsewhere, about USD 200m of economic losses may have been caused by the earthquakes on 4 and 5 July in Southern California near Ridgecrest. One risk modelling company has estimated that the insured loss would be about USD 40m (Source: Karen Clark & Company).

Other recent events
The following noteworthy natural events recently occurred during late July although, at present, these events are not expected to have a significant impact on Twelve Capital’s portfolios, or insured loss estimates have not yet been issued.

US storms and flooding
Over the last week, there have been clusters of US severe convective storms which led to wind and hail damage. As well as winds of up to 140 km/h there was also flash flooding. At least six people died in heat-related incidents. The insured losses are expected be over USD 100 million (Source: Aon).

South-Asia flooding
This is ongoing in India and Bangladesh with further monsoon rains expected. There have been over 200 deaths so far as well as damage to many homes and crops. The economic loss to the agriculture sector was estimated at USD 40m (Source: Aon).

Russian wildfires
Wildfires are burning in the Far East and Siberian regions of Russia. Although, to date, there has not been a major impact on property, the economic losses that are likely to be incurred by the forestry sector are like to be in the tens of millions of US dollars (Source: Aon).

Monday, 29 July 2019

Twelve Capital sees strong inflows into its UCITS Cat Bond offering

Please click here to download the media release.

Monday, 22 July 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update 15 July 2019

Tropical Storm Barry
Tropical storm Barry has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and has become the second named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season (Andrea being the first).

Barry made landfall early Saturday afternoon, 13 July as a weak Category 1 hurricane near Intracoastal City, Louisiana, and weakened to a tropical storm thereafter. Barry is expected to weaken further as it continues to move inland, and is currently forecast to weaken below tropical-storm strength over the next 24 hours.
Barry’s biggest threats were anticipated to be storm surge, torrential rainfall and corresponding flash/river flood along the Mississippi river. Preliminary weather reports seem to indicate that the impact of storm surge/rainfall is overall less catastrophic than anticipated. Notwithstanding, the flood warnings remain in effect.

There were numerous reports of downed trees and power lines throughout southern Louisiana and Mississippi, as well as some localised flooding and tornadoes across the two states.

Over the coming days the slow movement of Barry is still expected to result in heavy rainfall and flood threat from the central Gulf Coast north across the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley and potentially up to the Tennessee Valley.

Given the current weather reports and impact information available, Twelve Capital does not expect tropical storm Barry to drive insured losses to a significant level. Consequently, the storm is unlikely to have a noticeable impact on the portfolios.

As usual, Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor the ongoing situation and issue updated event reports if the current situation is deemed to have changed materially.

Other recent events

No new natural catastrophe events took place over the last two weeks that would be expected to cause major insured industry losses. The impact of these events on Twelve Capital’s portfolios is estimated to be negligible.

California earthquakes
Damage assessments are ongoing from the earthquakes on 4 and 5 July in Southern California near Ridgecrest. The scope of the damage was limited due to the epicentre’s location in a sparsely populated area, with some damage to local infrastructure reported. Initial high-level estimates published by the USGS (US Geological Society) indicate a strong likelihood that the economic losses will be in the range of USD 100m up to USD 1bn, whereby the insured market loss can, therefore, be estimated to be lower by a multiple.

US severe weather and flooding
Severe thunderstorms, torrential rainfall and strong winds led to damage across the central and eastern US during the first week of July, with areas in Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota the worst hit. Meanwhile, heavy rains affected the Washington DC metropolitan area. The total economic costs for these storms is expected to be over USD 100m, mainly driven by hail damage in Colorado.

China flooding
Seasonal rainfall led to additional flooding across southern China in the Yangtze River Basin for over 10 days in early July. China’s Ministry of Emergency Management stated that nearly 10,000 homes were submerged, and 130,000 hectares (321,000 acres) of cropland damaged with total economic losses estimated at USD 1.15bn. This number is likely to rise. Insurance protection penetration in China for this type of event, however, is generally very low. The impact of this event on the insurance market is therefore expected to be low.

Monday, 15 July 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update: 7.1 Earthquake in California

Another powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7.1 at a depth of 8.0 km occurred around 20:20 local time on Friday 5 July near Ridgecrest in Southern California, a city with a population of nearly 29,000. The earthquake was just a few kilometres north-west of the magnitude 6.4 shock that took place on 4 July.

This second shock was more than ten times stronger than the previous earthquake. It was, once again, felt in the areas of Los Angeles and Las Vegas. So far, no immediate reports of major damage or injuries have been reported from these areas. In Ridgecrest, however, moderate local damage has been reported, such as fires caused by gas leaks, water main breaks and power outages as well as cracks in streets. Some injuries were also reported, however, no fatalities have been announced.

Damage assessments are ongoing from both the initial foreshock on 4 July and the earthquake on 5 July. Based on currently available information, Twelve Capital does not expect these events to have a material impact either on the reinsurance industry or on Twelve Capital portfolios.

At this point, Twelve Capital will continue to closely monitor the evolution of these recent events and will issue further updates should there be significant changes to the current assessment.

Please click here for a chart of the earthquake’s epicentre (Source: USGS, as at 8 July 2019).

Monday, 8 July 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update: 6.4 Earthquake in California

Yesterday, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 at a depth of 10.7 km occurred 12 km south-west of Searles Valley, close to Ridgecrest in California. A few aftershocks up to a magnitude of 4.6 were recorded after the main earthquake (USGS). While this earthquake was one of the strongest experienced in California for several years, the epicentre was located in a sparsely populated area in the Mojave Desert thus greatly reducing the potential for damage. Localised damage in Ridgecrest was reported including power outages, cracks in roads and varying degrees of structural damage to buildings, however, so far no serious injuries have been reported. The Ridgecrest regional hospital was evacuated (according to CNN).

The earthquake could also be felt in Los Angeles, several hundred kilometres away, however, initial local media reports indicated very limited or no damage to the Los Angeles metropolitan area, including the airport.

At this point, Twelve Capital does not expect this event to have an impact on its portfolios.

Twelve Capital continues to monitor the situation, and will give further updates should the situation change materially.

Please click here for a chart of the earthquake’s epicentre on a population density map (source: USGS, as at 5 July 2019).

Friday, 5 July 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 1 July 2019

Summary
No new natural catastrophe events took place over the last two weeks that would be expected to cause major insured industry losses.

Other recent events
The following noteworthy natural events recently occurred during late June although, at present, these events are not expected to have a significant impact on Twelve Capital’s portfolios, or insured loss estimates have not yet been issued.

US storms
Thunderstorms hit the US between 21 and 27 June, including strong winds, from Kansas to Georgia. There were also hailstorms, wind and tornado damage in the Rockies, Plains, Midwest and the Southeast. Total combined economic and insured losses for several of these events is expected to be in the hundreds of millions in USD (Source: AON).

European heatwave and thunderstorm damage
A heatwave hit a large area of Europe and was particularly evident in France where temperatures reached 45°C, breaking historical records for June. Thunderstorms caused damage including flash flooding in Switzerland and Normandy – for these events, economic losses might be over USD 150 million (Source: AON).

Monday, 1 July 2019

Media release: Twelve Capital – Growth of ILS and Multi-Asset Offering

With AUM of approx. USD 4bn, Twelve Capital is growing its product range for ILS investors under its own brand – in Cat Bonds, Collateralised Reinsurance as well as in its Multi-Asset Best Ideas strategy. 

Please click here to download the media release.

Tuesday, 18 June 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 17 June 2019

Summary
No new natural catastrophe events took place over the last two weeks that would be expected to cause major insured industry losses.

Update on ongoing/occurred events
The Ebola pandemic in the Congo - where the initial outbreak was officially announced on 1 August 2018 by the Ministry of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo - has now spread to neighbouring Uganda. Therefore, the likelihood of the World Bank’s IBRD pandemic bond (CAR 111-112) being triggered has now increased substantially. It seems that the disease has now spread across borders which is one of the conditions that needs to be fulfilled in order to trigger a pay-out of the Cat Bond. Twelve Capital does not hold this bond in its pooled funds.

Other recent events
The following noteworthy natural events recently occurred during May and early June although, at present, these events are not expected to have a significant impact on Twelve Capital’s portfolios, or insured loss estimates have not yet been issued.

Severe convective storms in the US
During May, a series of US convective storms across the Midwest, Central Plains and Northeast led to a number of tornadoes and flooding. The expected insured loss estimate has now risen from USD 1 billion to about USD 2 billion (source: AON). This is not expected to have a significant direct impact on portfolios managed by Twelve Capital.

Severe weather/hail storm in Germany
There was a major storm in Germany due to severe convective weather early last week, with most of the damage incurred near the area of Munich. The insured losses estimated at the time of writing are between EUR 400m and 600m. This is not expected to have an impact on portfolios managed by Twelve Capital.

Monday, 17 June 2019

Twelve Capital whitepaper and roundtable debate in Clear Path Analysis report

We are pleased to share with you a Clear Path Analysis report focusing on Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) for institutional investors.

This is made up of a whitepaper by Dr. Jamie Rodney, ILS Analytics expert at Twelve Capital, and Dr. Thomas Loridan, CEO and Co-Founder of reask, a specialised research firm servicing the global reinsurance industry in the fields of catastrophe risk management, modelling and forecasting. They investigate the development of hurricane forecasting tools with the belief that advances in technology and computing power have the potential to enhance ILS investment management.

Meanwhile, a roundtable debate took place, featuring Twelve Capital portfolio managers Florian Steiger, Dr. Raffaele Dell’Amore and Etienne Schwartz, exploring a multi-asset approach to investing in the insurance sector. 

Please click here to download your copy of the excerpt.

Friday, 14 June 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update - 3 June 2019

Twelve Capital is once again issuing regular event updates as the first half of the 2019 US Atlantic Hurricane Season officially commences. In fact, on 21 May, storm Andrea actually became the first named storm in the Atlantic this year although it did not make landfall.

These updates will be issued on a fortnightly basis. As always, Twelve Capital continues to closely monitor any catastrophe events and will issue specific updates on any relevant new major events which occur.

Overview of current forecasts
Current forecasts for the North Atlantic Basin of the actual number of named storms and hurricanes that might occur range from 12 to 14.5 named storms and from 5 to 7 hurricanes. On a long-term basis, this would be a slightly above average season, given that the average number of storms observed between 1950 and 2018 is 11 named storms and 6 actual hurricanes.

Other events
At the time of writing, the following noteworthy natural events have recently occurred although at present, these events are either not expected to have a significant impact on Twelve Capital’s portfolios or industry insured losses have not yet been estimated for them.

Peru earthquake
On 27 May, an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 occurred at a depth of 110km in Peru (Source: USGS). Initial information reported indicates that the earthquake resulted in structural damage to buildings and infrastructure as well as some loss of life. The earthquake’s epicentre is located in a sparsely-populated area of the country away from the larger cities. At this point, Twelve Capital expects relatively little impact on its Cat Bond and Private ILS strategies.

Severe convective storms in the US
During May, a series of US convective storms across the Midwest, Central Plains and Northeast led to a number of tornadoes and flooding. Currently, the insured losses are expected to be about USD 1 billion (source: AON), however, these are not expected to have an impact on portfolios managed by Twelve Capital.

Monday, 03 June 2019

Twelve Capital Event Update: 8.0 Earthquake in Peru

Yesterday, an intense earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 occurring at a depth of 110km struck Peru (Source: USGS). Initial information reported indicate that the earthquake resulted in structural damage to buildings and infrastructure, and has killed at least one person whilst injuring many more.

Fortunately, the earthquake’s epicentre is located in a sparely populated area of the country away from the larger cities, which has mitigated the overall economic impact. However, shakes could still be felt hundreds of miles away.

At this point, Twelve Capital expects only little impact on its Cat Bond and Private ILS strategies. The only Cat Bond potentially exposed to this event is an IBRD-sponsored Cat Bond, which Twelve Capital estimates to lose 30% of notional from this event. Most portfolios at Twelve Capital have little or no exposure to this particular bond, so that the overall impact on investor performance is expected to be minimal at this point.

Twelve Capital continues to monitor the situation, and will give further updates should the situation change materially. 

Monday, 27 May 2019

Twelve Capital Research Spotlight: The Opportunity in Cat Bonds after the Repricing

We are pleased to share the latest Twelve Capital Research Spotlight with you, which focuses on the opportunity in Cat Bonds after the repricing. Please click here to download your copy.

Monday, 13 May 2019

Twelve Capital Research Spotlight Hurricane Risk Modelling

We are pleased to share the latest Twelve Capital Research Spotlight with you, which explains the evolution of hurricane risk modelling. Please click here to download your copy.

Tuesday, 30 April 2019

Twelve Capital announces the hiring of Dr. Raffaele Dell’Amore

Raffaele joins Twelve Capital AG in the Portfolio Management team with a principal focus on Private Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) strategies.

Please click here to read the media release.

Monday, 04 March 2019

Twelve Capital Perspectives - Investment Outlook for H1 2019

We are pleased to share the latest Twelve Capital Perspectives report with you.

To download your copy of the investment outlook for H1 2019, please click here.

Monday, 04 February 2019

Neue Zürcher Zeitung - Hilfe für Opfer des Klimawandels

Please click here to read the guest commentary in the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (in German) about climate change and Cat Bonds.

Wednesday, 16 January 2019

  • Twelve Capital hosts insurance investment forum at Lloyd’s

    Please click here to read the press release.

    Tuesday, 04 December 2018

    Twelve Capital Research Spotlight – Hurricane Season Review and ILS Outlook

    Please click here to download the latest Twelve Capital Research Spotlight, which reviews the hurricane season and provides an outlook for ILS.

    Wednesday, 28 November 2018

    Twelve Capital has appointed fund distribution consultancy Harrington Cooper to distribute its investment products within the UK and in French-speaking Europe.

    Please click here to read the press release.

    Thursday, 22 November 2018

    Twelve Capital Event Update: California Wildfires

    Starting on 8 November, multiple wildfires broke out in northern and southern California. Significant property damage has occurred and tens of fatalities have already been confirmed.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Wednesday, 14 November 2018

    Twelve Capital Event Update Hurricane Michael

    Hurricane Michael, currently located 290km south of Panama City (Florida) on the Gulf of Mexico, has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. A US Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has measured a minimal central pressure of 947mb and peak winds of around 210 km/h.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Wednesday, 10 October 2018

    Jamie Rodney on CNBC - Video

    Jamie Rodney, ILS Analytics at Twelve Capital, talks to the CNBC Squawk Box team about Hurricane Florence and the potential impact that the storm could have on the insurance sector. For an excerpt of the interview, please click here.

    Friday, 14 September 2018

    Twelve Capital Event Update 2: Hurricane Florence

    Hurricane Florence’s forecast strength at landfall has now weakened to a category 2 hurricane from a previous category 4. From the perspective of expected industry losses, these lower wind speeds would mean that losses from direct wind impact would be less than previously estimated. While this seems to be a positive development from a news headline perspective, it underlines the forecasting uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone systems.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Thursday, 13 September 2018

    Twelve Capital Event Update: Hurricane Florence

    Major Hurricane Florence, currently a category 4 storm in the mid-Atlantic, is at present forecast to make landfall on the east coast of the US later this week, either on Friday or Saturday, local time. Between 10 and 11 September, the storm strengthened from a tropical storm to a category 4 major hurricane.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Wednesday, 12 September 2018

    Twelve Capital Research Spotlight – US Life Insurers Q2 2018 Post Earnings Review

    Twelve reviews the results of the Q2 2018 reporting season for US life insurers and the overall valuation of these companies. Analysis shows valuations seem to be pricing in pessimism which is neither justified by company-specific fundamentals nor the overall current macro environment.

    This Twelve Capital Research Spotlight focuses on the current opportunity in the US life insurance sector. To download your copy, please click here.

    Thursday, 30 August 2018

    California Wildfires

    A wildfire broke out in Shasta County, northern California, on 23 July, reportedly ignited by a vehicle mechanical failure. At the time of writing, the fire is still burning but firefighting efforts are showing some traction with containment rates gradually improving.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Tuesday, 7 August 2018

    Greece Wildfires

    Widespread wildfires broke out across Greece on 23 July with news outlets reporting significant damage. Local authorities estimate that more than 2,500 homes have been destroyed with approximately 4,000 suffering significant damage. The latest reports suggest more than 80 fatalities with a further 180 people injured.
    The wildfires are reported to have started near the towns of Kineta, in the east, and close to the port of Rafina, in the west, although the cause of the outbreak is still unclear.

    Please click here to read the event update. 

    Friday, 27 July 2018

    Twelve Capital Perspectives - Investment Outlook for 2H 2018

    We are pleased to share the latest Twelve Capital Perspectives report with you.

    To download your copy of the investment outlook for 2H 2018, please click here.

    Thursday, 05 July 2018

    Urs Ramseier in GELD-Magazin – Interview

    Urs Ramseier, CEO & CIO at Twelve Capital, talks to GELD-Magazin about Insurance-Linked Securities, Insurance Private Debt and Best Ideas. Please click here to read the interview (available in German).

    Tuesday, 03 July 2018

    Twelve Capital Event Update: Subtropical Storm Alberto

    As the first storm in 2018, just prior to the start of the hurricane season on 1 June, Alberto made landfall as a subtropical storm in Northwest Florida.

    Alberto’s earlier than normal appearance in the year is not unprecedented.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Tuesday, 29 May 2018

    Marcus Rivaldi on CNBC - Video

    Marcus Rivaldi, Head of Credit & Equity Analytics at Twelve Capital, talks to the CNBC Street Signs team on Zurich Insurance Group and on M&A potential in the insurance sector. For an excerpt of the interview, please click here.

    Thursday, 08 February 2018

    Twelve Capital Perspectives - Investment Outlook for 1H 2018

    We are pleased to share the latest Twelve Capital Perspectives report with you.

    To download your copy of the investment outlook for 1H 2018, please click here.

    Friday, 02 February 2018

    Twelve Capital Group lead investor in three bilateral Private Debt transactions

    In December 2017, Twelve Capital Group invested USD 67.0m in three bilateral Private Debt transactions with ACCC Holding Corporation (USD 15.0m), Federated National Holding Company (USD 25.0m) and a commercial US based insurer for small to medium sized businesses (USD 27.0m).

    For further details, please click here.

    Friday, 12 January 2018

    Twelve Capital Event Update: California Mudslide & Honduras Earthquake

    Southern California was hit by several mudslides. A strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 occurred off the coast of Honduras.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Wednesday, 10 January 2018

    Twelve Capital issues private Catastrophe Bond “Dodeka XIV”

    Twelve Capital announces the issuance of “Dodeka XIV”, the latest instrument in its series of private cat bonds. Dodeka XIV is a USD denominated USD 35m cat bond covering second event risk across all natural perils in the United States. Cat bonds issued out of Twelve Capital’s bespoke Dodeka programme are only available for funds and mandates managed by Twelve Capital, who have fully absorbed the entire issuance of this transaction.

    “The Dodeka programme allows our cat bond funds to invest into perils that are not readily available in securities format, resulting in improved portfolio diversification, or into transactions exhibiting more attractive economic terms. Especially in the aftermath of the recent hurricanes, the Dodeka programme allows Twelve Capital’s investors to benefit from the current increases in premiums across collateralised reinsurance and retrocession markets” says Sandro Kriesch, Managing Partner and Head of ILS at Twelve Capital.

    Twelve Capital will continue to securitise private ILS content under its proprietary Dodeka programme if it fits the profile and investment needs of its cat bond funds and mandates.

    Wednesday, 10 January 2018

  • Twelve Capital Event Update: California Wildfires

    Over the last few days, California has again experienced another number of wildfires, despite the region having already suffered from several similar events during October, which caused loss of life, destroyed thousands of homes and resulted in potential insured industry losses of more than USD 10 billion.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Monday, 11 December 2017

     

    Twelve Capital Research Spotlight – Hurricane Season 2017

    Despite the number of events impacting the reinsurance and ILS markets during 2017, the outlook for the asset class on both a short- and medium-term view is, in our opinion, a particularly positive one.

    During a time of intense pressure, the ILS market has proven its structural robustness and investors have remained committed to the asset class, with a number increasing their allocations to the space over the past few weeks.

    For Twelve Capital in particular, the changing opportunity set in this market, driven by spread widening and new portfolio management techniques, remain influential factors in the development of new investment strategies at the firm, as well as in the continued optimisation of existing mandates and portfolios.

    Combined, in our view the outlook for the ILS asset class is stronger than it has been for many years, providing both an attractive entry point to allocate into the space and an opportunity for existing investors to increase their exposures to the market over the mid- to long-term.

    To download your copy, please click here.

    Tuesday, 28 November 2017

    Twelve Capital Event Update: California Wildfires

    California is currently suffering from what could possibly turn into the most expensive wildfires in the history of the state.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Wednesday, 08 November 2017

    Earthquake in Mexico & Hurricane Maria

    A major magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck central Mexico at 06:14 UTC on Tuesday, 19 September 2017. Furthermore, there is Hurricane Maria being the third Major Hurricane to hit the Lesser Antilles (following Irma and Jose), and along with Harvey, to impact the wider Caribbean and Gulf this season.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Wednesday, 20 September 2017

    Twelve Capital is delighted to announce the hiring of Aaron Coates to the firm’s London office.

    Aaron joins the company as an Executive Director in the Sourcing team, with a principal concentration on sourcing ILS transactions as well as Private Debt deals in the US.

    With nearly 20 years of industry experience, Aaron joins Twelve Capital from Barbican Insurance, where he spent almost 10 years as Business Group Leader for the firm’s Property Reinsurance business. During his tenure, Aaron’s main responsibilities were the implementation and delivery of the portfolio’s underwriting strategy and the strategic development of the Property Reinsurance portfolio.

    Prior to joining Barbican Insurance, Aaron spent time in Bermuda with Montpelier Re working on the firm’s retrocession portfolio “Blue Ocean Re”. Before this, Aaron worked at GE Frankona Re, having started his career in London with Copenhagen Re in the late 1990s.

    Urs Ramseier, CEO of Twelve Capital, said: “We are truly excited to have Aaron joining the firm. Aaron’s extensive knowledge of the insurance industry will further enhance our ability to serve clients across the firm’s insurance debt and ILS portfolios. We are delighted to welcome Aaron to the team.”

    Monday, 18 September 2017

    Urs Ramseier on CNBC - Video

    Urs Ramseier, CEO of Twelve Capital, talks to the CNBC Squawk Box team after Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Florida Keys as a Category 4 storm on Sunday, 10 September. For an excerpt of the interview, please click here.

    Tuesday, 12 September 2017

    Hurricane Irma - Landfall in Florida

    After passing through the Caribbean, Hurricane Irma made landfall around 1300 UTC on Sunday, 10 September in the Florida Keys as a Category 4 hurricane. Compared to the earlier expected development, which had foreseen a direct hit on Miami, this is an improvement and will most likely result in lower insurance losses than previously anticipated over the last days.

    Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Sunday, 10 September 2017

     

    Strong Earthquake in Mexico

    On 8 September 2017 at 4.49 UTC, there was an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1 near the Pacific coast line of Mexico. This is likely to be the strongest earthquake in Mexico in more than a century. USGS reports a depth of less than 70km with shaking still being felt in Mexico City.

    Large parts of the country were exposed to significant shakes which is likely to have caused substantial damage to buildings and possibly human life. A Tsunami warning was also issued.

    Generally, the insurance industry's exposure to Mexico is moderate, especially compared to other perils and geographies. Based on currently available information and analysis, we expect an impairment of the IBRD Fonden 2017 Cat Bond transaction covering Mexican earthquake risk. Twelve Capital is an investor in this transaction via some of its managed portfolios. The damage assessment for private ILS transactions is under way and will be conducted as soon as the relevant information becomes available.

    Friday, 08 September 2017

    Update: Hurricane Irma, Caribbean

    Event Summary

    Hurricane Irma remains a catastrophic Category 5 storm despite slightly less strong wind speeds. Sea surface temperature and ocean heat content will be even higher on its projected track. Upper-level atmospheric conditions remain favourable. Irma is likely to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane until landfall. A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to steer Irma to the north-west once it reaches the Straits of Florida.

    Track Scenarios

    Most recent weather model guidance shows a relatively high agreement on the storm track. Irma is thus forecasted to travel across the Bahama Archipelago and thereafter to follow one of these scenarios:

    1. Landfall in southern or south-western Florida

    2. Bypass Florida, landfall in Georgia, the Carolinas or even further to the north

    3. Landfall in western Florida or escape into the Gulf of Mexico

    Scenarios 1 and 2 are by far the most probable according to the models. The exact landfall location remains however highly uncertain.

    Impact

    Irma brought great devastation to Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saint-Barthélémy, Saint-Martin (FR), Sint-Maarten (NL), the British Virgins Islands and the northern part of the U.S. Virgin Islands. All these Islands harbour some 300k+ inhabitants. More than ten fatalities have been reported so far. Puerto Rico (pop 3.4m) was spared from the strongest winds when Irma passed at some distance from its north shore.

    Assessment of Loss Potential

    Substantial and widespread damage has been reported from the islands in Irma’s path. It was a combination of excess wind speeds, storm surge and inland flooding that produced a picture of complete devastation in some places. Apart from damaged residential, commercial and industrial buildings, news pictures reveal also numerous destroyed cars, boats and airplanes. An estimation of insured losses can only be made after the full extent of damage has become evident.

    Other Tropical Cyclone Activity

    Hurricane Katia in the Gulf of Mexico is forecasted to make landfall as a Category 1 storm in Mexico’s province Veracruz on Friday or Saturday. Hurricane force wind and heavy rainfall can be expected. The impact on the insurance industry is likely to be very limited. Hurricane Jose in the Atlantic takes a similar path than Irma. It is already packing Category 1 wind speeds and could strengthen even further. Forecasts indicate a northward turn upon arrival at the Leeward Islands in the Lesser Antilles. It is unclear whether Jose will affect populated areas along its projected track.

    Friday, 08 September 2017

    Hurricane Irma, Caribbean

    Hurricane Irma, located near Barbuda in the Lesser Antilles (Caribbean), is currently tracking west at about 20 km/h. Irma is the fifth ever recorded Atlantic hurricane with a peak wind speed of more than 295 km/h. Please click here to read the Event Update.

    Wednesday, 06 September 2017

    Hurricane Harvey, Texas, USA - First Impressions

    Event Summary

    “Harvey” made landfall as a category 4 hurricane between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor, Texas, at around 22:00 local time on Friday, 25 August 2017. It is the first major hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. At landfall, “Harvey” packed maximum sustained wind speeds of 215 km/h according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Storm surge observations were lower than forecasted, with a surge of around 2.1 meters recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. There are reports of at least three fatalities from “Harvey”. The storm captured a tremendous amount of moisture over the Gulf of Mexico. As a consequence, torrential rainfall occurred in vast parts of Southern Texas. Houston and neighbouring areas currently experience catastrophic flooding. “Harvey” is expected to move very slowly in the next 48 hours producing more heavy rain in the area.

    Impact

    The area is relatively small and sparsely populated and was affected by hurricane force winds as well as significant storm surge. Substantial damage has been reported mainly from seaside towns like Rockport. Severe flooding affects large parts of Southern Texas. The metropolitan area of Houston experiences unprecedented river levels and the whole situation is likely to become even worse. The impact from the flooding is yet to be determined. It is very likely that apart from residential some major commercial and industrial areas have been affected.

    Assessment of Loss Potential

    As this is an ongoing event, loss estimates are very difficult to make. Like Sandy in 2012, Harvey is mainly a water, not a wind event. Thus, the contribution from flooding to the total insured loss is highly uncertain. Flood losses to residential and commercial buildings are typically covered by policies from the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Occasionally, such losses may “leak” into wind policies. Furthermore, business interruption is likely to contribute heavily to the overall losses as many businesses may be shut down for days or weeks.

    Currently, information provided by the catastrophe model agencies indicate that Cat Bonds are unlikely to have been affected by the hurricane. It will take a few weeks until final loss estimates are available. Some Private ILS contracts are exposed to this event as well. With regard to Insurance Debt, the event is not expected to adversely impact the credit positions of the listed re/insurers we are invested in given that standalone, this will largely be an earnings event as opposed to capital erosion. For Insurance Equity, the greatest uncertainty remains with the extent of flooding damage and business interruption. This may erode 2017 earnings for some of the more exposed businesses.

    Twelve Capital is currently assessing the loss potential using the latest impact reports.

    Monday, 28 August 2017

    Hurricane Harvey, Texas, USA

    Harvey is a Category 2 hurricane currently in the Gulf of Mexico heading towards Texas, USA. Central pressure is 950hPa and decreasing, with wind speeds of 175km/h as of 12pm UTC.

    Harvey is forecasted to make landfall on 26 August 2017 in the morning (UTC) as a Major Hurricane. A large part of the Texan coast is expected to be affected, but particularly around Corpus Christi. Winds greater than 175km/h are forecasted, making this a potential Category 3 hurricane.

    Official hurricane warnings are currently in place along the Texan coast, and storm surge warnings for the coast near Houston. Major wind, coastal storm surge and inland flood damage along the storm track can be expected.

    There is still much uncertainty around the track and storm strength, so it is not possible to make damage or loss estimates currently. Investor exposures are being closely assessed and actively monitored on both Cat Bonds and Private ILS investments.

    Friday, 25 August 2017

    Twelve Capital supports World Bank’s new insurance-linked note programme

    The International Bank of Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), part of the World Bank Group, has recently announced a series of insurance-linked securities that provide a cat bond based solution assisting emerging countries to cope with the consequences of natural catastrophes, such as earthquakes, tropical cyclones, and pandemic viral outbreaks.

    Twelve Capital has participated in these transactions on behalf of its investors through various funds and mandates. The decision to participate in these innovative solutions was based not only on the conviction that ILS structures should play an important role in providing insurance solutions to the poorest regions on Earth, but also on the fact that gaining exposure to diversifying insurance risks at attractive yields results in better risk-return profiles for investors’ portfolios.

    Friday, 04 August 2017

    Twelve Capital Perspectives - Investment Outlook for 2H 2017

    We are pleased to share the latest issue of Twelve Capital's Perspectives with you. To download your copy of the Investment Outlook for 2H 2017, please click here.

    Friday, 14 July 2017

    Twelve Capital Research Spotlight – Insurance Relative Value

    Please find the latest issue of Twelve Capital's Research Spotlight here.

    Thursday, 02 June 2017

    Twelve Capital Group lead investor in USD 45.5m Private Debt transaction with Catalina General Insurance Ltd.

    Twelve Capital Group was the majority investor in the note offering of Catalina General Insurance Ltd.

    To read the whole press release, please click here.

    Wednesday, 10 May 2017

    Twelve Capital announces the hiring of Florian Steiger to the firm’s Zurich office.

    Florian joins the company as a Director within the Portfolio Management team, with a principal concentration on Catastrophe Bond strategies.

    Florian joins Twelve from Cape Capital, Zurich, where he set-up and managed the Cape Fixed Income Fund. Prior to this, he held roles in London and Zurich with ZAIS Group and Goldman Sachs. Florian’s focus throughout his career has been structured and illiquid credit, such as CLOs and credit derivatives, as well as subordinated bonds of European financials.

    John Butler, Managing Partner & Head of Investment Management at Twelve Capital, said: “We are very happy to have Florian joining the firm. Florian’s deep experience in portfolio management will further enhance our ability to generate solid returns and serve clients across the firm’s portfolios. We are delighted to welcome him to the firm.”

    Tuesday, 09 May 2017

    Interview with Urs Ramseier in Institutional Money

    Dr Urs Ramseier, Group CEO of Twelve Capital, talks to Institutional Money about the current situation in the ILS market. Please click here to read the whole interview (available in German).

    Friday, 31 March 2017

    Interview with John Butler in Insurance Day

    John Butler, Managing Partner of Twelve Capital, talks to Insurance Day about Solvency II that has driven a steady interest in debt issuance among the biggest re/insurers in Europe over the last couple of years. Please click here to read the whole article (page 4).

    Monday, 13 March 2017

    Twelve Capital Perspectives - Investment Outlook for 2017

    We are pleased to share the latest issue of Twelve Capital's Perspectives with you. To download your copy of the Investment Outlook for 2017, please click here.

    Monday, 30 January 2017

    Marcus Rivaldi on CNBC - Video

    Marcus Rivaldi, Head of Credit & Equity Analytics at Twelve Capital, talks to the CNBC Squawk Box team after Intesa Sanpaolo confirmed that it was looking at a potential bid for Italy’s largest insurer, Assicurazioni Generali Spa. For an excerpt of the interview, please click here.

    Wednesday, 25 January 2017

    Twelve Capital Group acted as sole investor in debt issue by Bermudian insurance company

    Randall & Quilter Investment Holdings Ltd. informs about their latest issue of subordinated notes. Please click here to read the whole press release.

    Friday, 20 January 2017

    Twelve Capital completes $19.5m Dodeka XI cat bond lite

    Artemis writes about Twelve Capital's completion of a $19.5 million Dodeka XI private catastrophe bond issuance. Please click here to read the whole article.

    Monday, 09 January 2017

  • Twelve Capital in USD 30m private debt deal for United, placed by BMS

    John Butler, Head of Investment Management at Twelve Capital, talks to Artemis and Insurance Day about their latest private debt deal. Please click on the respective links to read the articles.

    Tuesday, 06 December 2016

    Earthquake in New Zealand

    An earthquake of magnitude 7.8 struck New Zealand's South Island on Sunday, 13 November at 23:02 local time. The epicentre of the main shock lay about 100 km northeast of Christchurch and about 220 km southwest of the capital Wellington. Dozens of significant aftershocks have been registered since then, the strongest ones reaching a magnitude of 6.5. A Tsunami wave was triggered along the east coast of the South Island. It reached a maximum height of about two metres. There have also been a large number of landslides reported.

    According to government officials, at least two fatalities have been reported. The area affected by very strong to severe shaking is thinly populated. Most damage seems to be to infrastructure and residential buildings. There is no Cat Bond exposed to this event. The potential impact on Private ILS transactions is being assessed. Twelve is monitoring the situation very closely.

    Tuesday, 15 November 2016

    Solvenzfinanzierung für Versicherungen über Private Debt

    Die grössten Versicherungen in Europa beschaffen sich Solvenzkapital über Tier-2-Anleihen. Für kleinere Versicherungen gibt es neuerdings Tier-2-Kapital auch in Form von Private Debt - Daniel Grieger und Vittorio Sangiorgio von Twelve Capital zeigen in der jüngsten Ausgabe von Absolut Research, wie diese Art der Finanzierung den Versicherern eine effizienztere Kapitalstruktur ermöglicht und Investoren ein interessantes Anlageuniversum mit attraktiven Renditen eröffnet.

    Please click here for further information (available in German). The full version is available upon request.

    Thursday, 10 November 2016

    Earthquake in Italy

    An earthquake of magnitude 6.5 has occurred in the Apennine mountains on Sunday, 30 October at 07:40 local time. The location is northeast of Rome and southeast of Perugia, near the small town of Norcia. The location is further to the north to Amatrice, where an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 had occurred on 24 August. Since the main shock on Sunday morning, a number of aftershocks with magnitude 4 and above have occurred.

    Most damage seems to be to residential buildings. The only Cat Bond exposed to Italy earthquake is Azzurro, which is not affected by today’s events according to our modelling analysis. The potential impact on Private ILS transactions is being assessed. Twelve is monitoring the situation very closely.

    Monday, 31 October 2016

    Predicting the unpredictable in the catastrophe bond market

    Cat bond market participants held their collective breath last week as hurricane Matthew approached the eastern seaboard of the United States. Post that event, and in the latest ‘Friday View’ report published by Portfolio Institutional, Twelve Capital Managing Partner Sandro Kriesch and Head of ILS Analytics Jan Kleinn outline their views around the implications of hurricane Matthew for the cat bond market. To read the full article, please click here.

    Thursday, 20 October 2016

    Private Debt as subordinate capital for smaller insurers

    In the latest HEDGEWORK NEWS Edition, Daniel Grieger, Managing Partner at Twelve Capital, writes about Private Debt as subordinate capital for smaller insurers. Please click here to download the full article on page 14 (available in German).

    Hurricane Matthew - First Impressions

    Tropical storm Matthew formed near St. Lucia in the Antilles on 28 September, moved west over the Caribbean Sea and intensified to a hurricane on 29 September. Matthew then turned north and crossed the western tip of Haiti and the eastern tip of Cuba as a category 4 hurricane. The interaction with these two islands lead to a slight weakening, making Matthew a category 3 hurricane when moving towards the Bahamas. Matthew intensified to category 4 again over the Bahamas but was back to category 3 before approaching and moving along the Florida coast. Matthew moved along the Florida coast, weakened to category 2 when moving along the Georgia coast and finally to category 1 while moving along the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina. Matthew did not make landfall in Florida or Georgia, just crossed a bit of the South Carolina coast between Charleston and Georgetown.

    According to a preliminary wind field published by the National Hurricane Center of the US National Weather Service, only a small area over land was affected by hurricane force winds. The overall impact on losses is therefore expected to be limited.

    The last modelling updates from the modelling agencies indicate that cat bonds are most likely not affected by hurricane Matthew. It will take a few weeks though until the final loss estimates are available by the cat bond sponsors. During this time period, we expect to see some mark to market price effects in the cat bond market. Based on currently available information, we expect a mark to market performance effect on our cat bond funds and mandates between
    -0.5% and -2%.

    We will closely analyse further updates from the modelling agencies as they become available and issue further client reporting.

    Monday, 10 October 2016

    Hurricane Matthew

    At 5pm Zurich time, Hurricane Matthew was located just 40 km west of Nassau over the Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of about 220 km/h with higher gusts. This makes Matthew a category 4 hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Hurricane force winds (starting at sustained winds of about 120 km/h) extend outward up to about 95 km from the centre and tropical storm force winds (starting at about 65 km/h) extend outward up to 260 km.

    Hurricane Matthew is expected to get close to the Florida coast tomorrow, Friday 7 October, and move along the coast from Melbourne and Palm Bay to Jacksonville. Track forecasts then take Matthew out to the sea, slowly moving away from the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. No impact on North Carolina is expected according the current forecasts.

    We have evaluated the events provided by the modelling agencies and none seem to be an acceptably close fit to the range of forecast tracks. The suggested modelling events either make landfall or stay too far from the coast. The resulting loss estimates are therefore, in our opinion, not meaningful and give too varying and inaccurate range of possible underlying insured loss values. We therefore continue to observe and analyse the situation and will communicate estimates as soon as we feel confident that they have any material accuracy.

    Thursday, 06 October 2016

    Heightened M&A Activity in the Insurance Sector

    Just days into the fourth quarter, the insurance sector has experienced heightened M&A activity, supporting Twelve Capital’s recently launched M&A insurance equity focused portfolios. This week has seen three confirmed approaches, two involving listed (re)insurers, and one private name. The listed space has seen approaches by Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Insurance for Endurance Specialty Holdings, and NN Group for Delta Lloyd. Amongst private (re)insurers two Shenzen Government-owned investment companies have agreed to buy ACR Capital Holdings Pte Ltd, the owner of Singapore's biggest reinsurance firm.

    Aside from the three confirmed approaches, there has also been multiple media reports around additional M&A activity, including amongst listed names that Markel had been in discussions with Allied World regarding a takeover, and within the private space that Apollo Global Management is expected to acquire 50% of Lloyd's (re)insurer Ariel.

    William Hardcastle, Director, and Strategy Head of Twelve Capital’s liquid equity strategy added: “The share price benefit is not restricted to these stocks as investors look to own the next company that may be acquired at a premium to current share price. M&A activity is picking up, and we see no reason why this global trend won’t continue into 2017. The multitude of factors driving M&A remain, including subdued organic growth opportunities, increased importance of scale, cheap financing and currency dislocations.”

    Thursday, 06 October 2016

    A false dawn for restricted tier 1 debt?

    Twelve Capital discusses with InsuranceERM the market for restricted tier 1 debt. Please clicke here to read the whole article.

    Monday, 03 October 2016

    Catastrophe Bonds: Predicting the unpredictable

    On Wednesday 26 October, Sandro Kriesch, Head of Private ILS at specialist insurance investment manager Twelve Capital, will host this lunchtime webinar which aims to debunk many of the myths associated with Cat Bond investing and highlight the benefits of adding this uncorrelated asset class into a well-diversified investment portfolio. From an initial top down view of the asset class, Sandro Kriesch will then look to demonstrate the quantitative methods that can be used in order to ‘predict the unpredictable’ or, rather, ascribe a greater degree of certainty around the likelihood of default for a Catastrophe Bond than could be said to be the case for many corporate bonds in the market at this time.

    For further details, please click here.

    Wednesday, 21 September 2016

    Twelve Capital Group successfully launches insurance equity strategy

    Twelve Capital Group has successfully launched its insurance equity strategy. The portfolios launched to date have a focus on M&A activity in the insurance sector. This addition is a significant strategic milestone, as it progresses Twelve Capital’s vision to offer investors access to the attractive investment opportunities across the entire (re-)insurance balance sheet. It further complements Twelve’s existing strategies, Insurance-Linked Securities and Insurance Debt, which the firm has been running successfully for several years.

    To read more, please click here.

    Wednesday, 31 August 2016

    Italy quake unlikely to trigger EUR 200m cat-bond default

    Carolyn Cohn at Reuters talks to John Butler, Head of Investment Management at Twelve Capital, about whether the Azzurro Re cat bond will be triggered by the recent earthquake in Italy. Please click here to read the whole interview.

    Wednesday, 24 August 2016

    Earthquake in Italy - 24 August 2016

    An earthquake of magnitude 6.2 has occurred in the Apennine mountains at 1:30 UTC last night. The location is northeast of Rome and north of L’Aquila, where the last significant earthquake took place in 2009 (magnitude 6.3). Since the main shock, seven aftershocks of magnitude 4 and above have taken place, the most intense of magnitude 5.5.

    Most damage seems to be to residential buildings. The only Cat Bond exposed to Italy earthquake is Azzurro, which is not affected by today’s events according to our modelling analysis. The potential impact on Private ILS transactions is being assessed. Twelve is monitoring the situation very closely.

    Wednesday, 24 August 2016

    Twelve Capital continues to see opportunities for more nimble mandates within the volatile equity markets

    Whilst there have been plenty of headlines in 2016 debating nervousness around the equity asset class, Twelve Capital has continued to see compelling opportunities within one of its specialist areas of focus – insurance stocks.  Reflecting on the first half of the year, Dani Grieger, Head of Investment Strategies at Twelve Capital, noted “the strong performance of our global equity allocations over the last few months reflects our conviction that the insurance sector offers investors attractive opportunities within today’s volatile markets.

    On 29 July, the FT noted that "the sprint out of European equity funds entered its 25th consecutive week, draining portfolios of $76bn since the year began".  Yet William Hardcastle, Equity Analyst at Twelve Capital, explained why these conditions can be beneficial to the right investment strategies: “The continued outflow is likely to be creating greater dislocations in prices. The added volatility, whilst negative for trackers, creates opportunities for more nimble mandates. Moreover, the insatiable hunt for yield in other asset classes has only intensified the value of an attractive and robust dividend yield – something that the insurance sector has long delivered.”

    Friday, 29 July 2016

    FT/Willis Towers Watson Global Alternatives Survey 2016

    In early July, Willis Towers Watson (a global investment consultancy firm) published their latest Global Alternatives Survey. The survey found that “alternative investments grow on flight from bonds and equities”, with continued high demand for private debt (“more specialist strategies will attract greater interest”), and with demand from institutional investors for ILS remaining regardless of premiums. The survey also noted that ILS funds targeting more remote and lower risk events are likely to continue to generate an attractive risk-reward ratio.

    Commenting on the findings, John Butler, Head of Investment Management at Twelve Capital, said, “The survey echoes our belief in the attractiveness of more specialist strategies within illiquid credit and insurance-linked investments.“

    Furthermore, the accompanying FT article notes that despite the rise in allocations to alternative investments, there are concerns that the accompanying risks should be understood and aligned appropriately. James Ray, Head of Consultant Relations at Twelve Capital added “Willis Towers Watson are right to flag up the need for investors to put alternative managers under greater scrutiny before making allocations. We believe there are still solutions for those who are searching for yield but who wish to retain liquidity and may be wary about exposure to riskier (and possibly costlier) alternative investments. Notably, fixed income mandates could look at the higher yields issued by European insurance companies compared to corporate bonds.”

    Monday, 11 July 2016

    Twelve Capital Perspectives - Investment Outlook for 2H 2016

    We are pleased to share with you the latest issue of Twelve Capital's Perspectives with you.

    To download your copy of the Investment Outlook for 2H 2016, please click here.

    Friday, 08 July 2016

    Twelve Capital Research Spotlight - Brexit - June 2016

    Twelve Capital’s ‘Research Spotlight’ report aims to highlight some of the most compelling investment opportunities currently available across the universe of insurance related investments, as evaluated by the firm’s analytics team. Post the UK’s referendum on its membership of the European Union, this note takes an initial look at the wider implications that such a decision may have for the insurance sector. To download your copy of the report, please click here.

    Friday, 24 June 2016

    Twelve Capital Research Spotlight - June 2016

    Twelve Capital hosted a roundtable meeting at its London offices on 14 April, and over breakfast debated the lessons learnt and outlook for the insurance sector flowing from the first round of financial results under the new Solvency II regime. Benefitting from a few week’s hindsight, this latest Twelve Capital Research Spotlight shares the key conclusions from the discussion. To read more, please click here.

    Thursday,  16 June 2016

    Twelve Capital Group anchor investor in EUR 50m Private Debt transaction with Adriatic Slovenica d.d.

    Twelve Capital Group was the anchor investor in Adriatic Slovenica d.d.’s note offering, providing the company with Solvency II compliant capital for a ten year period. To read the whole press release, please click here

    Tuesday, 07 June 2016

    Floods in Germany and France - 3 June 2016

    Heavy rainfall caused localised severe flooding in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria this week. Both events were intense but localised, each affecting only a handful of towns. The risk of further heavy rainfall events is decreasing the next few days.

    Furthermore, flooding is ongoing in Paris and along the Seine upstream and downstream of Paris. The water level of the Seine in Paris is still more than 2 metres below the water level of the great flood in 1910 and should stay below the level in 1982. The flood is expected to peak today and flood levels to recede later today.

    It is too early to get an overview of insured losses. Currently, there is no impact on Cat Bonds expected. Twelve is monitoring the situation.

    Friday, 03 June 2016

    ILS: pricing, diversification and illiquidity premiums

    Roman Muraviev, Head of Catastrophe Bonds, and Sandro Kriesch, Head of Private ILS at Twelve Capital, discuss with Intelligent Insurer the current pricing, diversification and illiquidity premium dynamics across the ILS market. To read the full article, please click here.

    Wednesday, 27 April 2016

    Private ILS investments offer illiquidity premium

    Sandro Kriesch, Managing Partner and Head of Private ILS at Twelve Capital, discusses the Private ILS market with Artemis, a growing sub-sector of the overall ILS space. To read the full article, please click here.

    Friday, 18 March 2016

  • Private debt - attractive subordinated capital to insurers

    With the introduction of the Solvency II regulatory regime on 1 January 2016, Private Debt is one option for small- and medium-sized insurers to raise capital in order to meet their solvency requirements. B2B magazine discussed this asset class with Daniel Grieger, Managing Partner and Head Private Debt at Twelve Capital, and the related benefits and risks. The full article (German only) can be downloaded here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 15 December 2015

    MultiCat Mexico offers lessons in secondary trading

    Following Hurricane Patricia making landfall in Mexico in October, Roman Muraviev, Head of Catastrophe Bonds at Twelve Capital, talks to Intelligent Insurer about how the ILS investor community has recently been focused on the way some catastrophe bonds can be triggered and the tactical implications around portfolio management that this and other similar events have on the ILS market. Please click here to read the full article.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 20 November 2015

    How big cities can use ILS to protect against weather risks

    John Butler, Managing Partner and Head of Sourcing at Twelve Capital, speaks to The Actuary to discuss how big cities can use insurance-linked securities to protect against weather risks. Please click here and turn to pages 31 and 32 to read the full article.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Monday, 09 November 2015

    Successfully negotiating a challenging environment for fixed income

    Urs Ramseier, Twelve Capital Chairman & CIO, discusses with Investment Week the attractions of investing in insurance company bonds, portfolio positioning and potential M&A activity in the insurance bond sector. Please click here to see the full article.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Monday, 02 November 2015

    Raising capital to reach new markets - Video

    Daniel Grieger, Managing Partner and Head of Private Debt at Twelve Capital, appears as a panellist at the ICMIF Biennial Conference in Minneapolis discussing the key challenges and potential solutions for cooperative/mutual businesses to raise capital for business growth and specific business projects. Please click here to see the full panel discussion.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Monday, 26 October 2015

    Twelve Capital Award Win at 2015 Fund Awards

    Twelve Capital were selected as ‘Best Long Term Performing Credit Fund’ and ‘Recognised Leader in Cat Bonds and Private Insurance-linked Securities’ at Wealth & Finance magazine’s 2015 Fund Awards.

    When announcing the award recipients, Nathan Angell, Awards Co-ordinator, said: “With the global economy continuing to go from strength to strength, the continually exceptional performance from the global fund industry has been a key factor in this upward trajectory. With so many professionals and individuals achieving stellar results in this industry, it is an honour to recognise Twelve Capital for their success.”.

    An online version of the Fund Awards 2015 Winners Guide is available here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 21 October 2015

    ILS investors seek specific line margins

     

    John Butler, Head of Sourcing at Twelve Capital, spoke to Reactions about the growth of the ILS market and investor interest in how returns from such investments fit within a broadly diversified investment portfolio. For a copy of the full article, please refer to Reactions' latest publication.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 21 October 2015

    Private cat bonds attract new counterparties

    John Butler, Head of Sourcing at Twelve Capital, speaks to  Intelligent Insurer’s ‘Baden-Baden Today’ about the growth of private cat bonds, ahead of this year’s annual Reinsurance Meeting in the region. For a link to the full article, please turn to page 22 of Baden-Baden Today.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Monday, 19 October 2015

    Daniel Grieger on Mutuals Finding New Ways to Raise Capital - Video

    Daniel Grieger, Managing Partner and Head of Private Debt at Twelve Capital, discusses the new regulatory environment in Europe which is stifling bank lending to insurers to some degree, forcing them to explore new sources of lending and reinsurance arrangements. Please click here to see the full interview.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 09 October 2015

    Twelve Capital Insurance Investment Forum London

    On Tuesday 03 November, Twelve Capital will be hosting a half day event entitled “Insurance investment opportunities in a low-yield environment”. On the agenda will be a broad range of topics related to financing options and corresponding investment approaches across the insurance sector, combining high-level strategic insight with the opportunity for face to face meetings and peer discussion groups.

    This conference is designed to foster dialogue between investors, (re)insurance companies and other market participants to highlight insurance investment opportunities in the current low-yield market environment. Please contact us if you wish to attend.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Thursday, 24 September 2015

    Marcus Rivaldi on CNBC - Video

    Marcus Rivaldi, Executive Director at Twelve Capital, talks to the CNBC Squawk Box team about Zurich Insurance ending its takeover talks with RSA. For an excerpt of the interview, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Monday, 21 September 2015

    Insurance-Linked Products: Investments with Potential

    Since 2013, certain parts of the ILS market have been overbought and yields have been decreasing. There are, however, signs that this trend will slow down.

    B2B magazine discussed the sector with Sandro Kriesch, Managing Partner and Head Private ILS at Twelve Capital, alongside the criteria for successful investing and how risks can be avoided. The full article (German only) can be downloaded here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Thursday, 17 September 2015

    Growth in private cat bonds brings new faces to ILS

    John Butler, Head of Sourcing at Twelve Capital, speaks to  Intelligent Insurer’s ‘Monte Carlo Today’ about the growth of private cat bonds, which allow counterparties not previously active in the ILS space to now access this method of risk transfer. For a link to the full article, please turn to page 12 of Monte Carlo Today.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 16 September 2015

    The evolution of alternative capital

    Dr. Urs Ramseier, Chairman and CIO of Twelve Capital, speaks at an Intelligent Insurer roundtable discussion about the evolution of alternative capital. For a link to the full article, please turn to page 14 of Monte Carlo Today.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 16 September 2015

    Twelve Capital presents ILS at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology’s annual Risk Day in Zurich

    Dr. Roman Muraviev, Executive Director and Head of Catastrophe Bonds at Twelve Capital, presented the Insurance-Linked Securities asset class to a forum of industry experts and academicians at the annual Risk Day conference held and organized by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETH Zurich). The event strived to facilitate an intellectual exchange between recognized industry experts in the sectors of Insurance, Risk Management and Finance, alongside academicians working in those fields. Further information around the event can be found here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Monday, 14 September 2015

    PRA rules Prudential bond ineligible for Solvency II tier 2

    InsuranceERM interview Marcus Rivaldi, Executive Director for credit and equity analytics at Twelve Capital, around Prudential’s change of conditions on a USD 700m perpetual debt issue, after the regulator ruled that it would not qualify as tier 2 debt under Solvency II. For a link to the full article, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 11 September 2015

    Private catastrophe bonds offer enhanced returns in the ILS market

    John Butler, a Managing Partner and Head of Sourcing at Twelve Capital, discusses with AlphaQ how private catastrophe bonds offer enhanced returns in the insurance-linked securities market. Click here for the August 2015 edition of AlphaQ and turn to page 19 onwards for the full article.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 01 September 2015

    William Hardcastle on CNBC - Video

    William Hardcastle, Director at Twelve Capital, talks to the CNBC Squawk Box team about how the low rate environment is impacting insurers' earnings and solvency ratios. For an excerpt of the interview, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Monday, 24 August 2015

    ILS Puts Reinsurance Market on a New Course

    John Butler, a Managing Partner and Head of Sourcing at Twelve Capital, discusses with Insurance Journal how the company has played its role in expediting the formation and management of funds and specialized vehicles that utilize ILS products primarily as investments. Please click here for the full article.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Thursday, 20 August 2015

    Twelve Capital awarded “Insurance Fund of the Year” and “Outstanding Excellence in Insurance Investments” at the Global Fund Awards 2015

    Twelve Capital has been awarded the Corporate LiveWire 2015 Global Fund Award for “Insurance Fund of the Year – Twelve Insurance Bond Fund” and the award for “Outstanding Excellence in Insurance Investments”.

    When announcing the award recipients, Corporate LiveWire’s Leah Jones, said: “With such an exciting and growing industry we anticipated that the level of competition would be tough. Not only do the winning firms represent the pinnacle of success, but also continued hard work and dedication....”.

    An online version of the 2015 Global Fund Award Winners Guide is available here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 18 August 2015

    Monte Carlo Annual Insurance Conference Preview

    Ahead of this year’s annual Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous conference, Managing Partner and Head of Sourcing John Butler explains that, while a solution to Greece’s sovereign debt travails has dominated financial media, Twelve Capital believes this is largely a non-relevant solvency issue for European insurers and their investors. For the full article, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 14 August 2015

    Twelve Capital shares insights on potential RSA / Zurich transaction

    Twelve Capital analysts Marcus Rivaldi and William Hardcastle speak to Intelligent Insurer about the potential for UK-based insurer RSA to be acquired by Zurich Insurance Group. Please click here for the full article.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 11 August 2015

    Twelve Capital “UK Niche Investment Manager of the Year (Insurance)” award win

    Twelve Capital has been awarded the ACQ5 Global Award for “UK Niche Investment Manager of the Year (Insurance)” as part of this year’s 10th Annual awards programme.

    When announcing the award recipients, Group Editor of ACQ5, Jake Robson, said: “Every year, we seek the assistance of our readers, the industry itself, in recognising industry leaders, eminent individuals, exemplary teams and distinguished businesses, which we believe represent the benchmark of achievement and best practice...”.

    An online version of the ACQ5 magazine award supplement is available here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 11 August 2015

    Twelve Capital shares insights on Solvency II for mutual and cooperative insurers

    Twelve Capital Managing Partner, John Butler, speaks to the International Cooperative and Mutual Insurance Federation (ICMIF) about Solvency II and its implications for mutual and cooperative insurers. To read the whole article, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 07 August 2015

    Marcus Rivaldi on CNBC - Video

    Marcus Rivaldi, Executive Director at Twelve Capital, talks to the CNBC Squawk Box team about Solvency II, the recent discussions around a potential Zurich/RSA transaction, current levels of emerging market insurance penetration and the impact of an anticipated Fed rate increase on the insurance sector. For an excerpt of the interview, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 04 August 2015

    John Butler, Managing Partner and Head of Sourcing, talks to Intelligent Insurer

    John Butler, Managing Partner and Head of Sourcing at Twelve Capital, talks to Intelligent Insurer about the increase in cat bond lites and how to use the cat cycle to maximise returns. To read the whole article, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    22 July 2015

    Twelve Market Perspectives - Investment Outlook for 2H 2015

    To download the Investment Outlook for 2H 2015, please click here.

    Twelve Capital Chairman and CIO, Urs Ramseier, presents at the launch of the OECD Business and Finance Outlook

    On 24 June 2015, the OECD hosted a presentation and high-level roundtable for the launch of its Business and Finance Outlook in Paris.

    Speakers at the roundtable discussions included Ignazio Visco (Governor of the Banca d’Italia), Klaas Knot (President of De Nederlandshe Bank), Larry Zimpleman (Chairman of the Principal Financial Group) and Antoine Lissowski (CFO of CNP Assurances). Twelve Capital’s Chairman and CIO, Urs Ramseier, participated as a panellist on the OECD’s roundtable discussing the challenges and risks that pension funds and life insurers are facing in the current economic environment.

    Panellists discussed the potential implications of persistent low interest rates on insurers’ financial strength, particularly when assurances of guaranteed returns may have previously been made to policyholders. While acknowledging the headwinds that the sector will face, panellists highlighted possible solutions that insurers could look to in the current economic climate. Amongst them, a shift of product offering to defined contributions versus defined benefit plans and a push towards lower capital consuming products, where the investment risks are borne by policyholders, were highlighted.

    It was also noted that low yields will impact insurers differently, depending both on where they are located and on the type of products commercially available. More generally, it became clear that the sector will need to increase the level of risk within investment portfolios, as government bonds will no longer be sufficient to generate the required levels of yield. Insurers will therefore need to develop an internal expertise in more illiquid and higher-yielding asset classes, or alternatively leverage the skills of specialist external investment managers.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 26 June 2015

    Twelve Capital Managing Partner and Head of Private ILS, Sandro Kriesch, presents at the CFA UK Fixed Income Conference

    On 23 June 2015, Twelve Capital Managing Partner and Head of Private ILS, Sandro Kriesch, presented at the CFA UK Fixed Income Conference, speaking on the event’s Illiquids and Alternatives panel.

    Sandro presented alongside David Dahan (Managing Director for Secure Income Alternatives at Aviva Investors) and Jerome Jacques (Global Co-Head of Asset Backed Products at Societe Generale).

    The panel discussed a broad range of illiquid/alternative investment opportunities, including Catastrophe Bonds and Private ILS, alongside the skill sets required to invest in such an asset class. Given the search for yield in the current low interest rate environment and increased need for diversification within investment portfolios, the panellists then focused on the most attractive investment opportunities within the illiquids/alternatives space over the coming years.

    For CFA UK Society members, a webcast of the panel session can be accessed here using your normal CFA member login details.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 23 June 2015

    Twelve Capital announces three new hires to the firm's London office

    Twelve Capital announces three new hires joining the firm's London office: Marcus Rivaldi, William Hardcastle and Ulrich Beck. For further details, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 05 June 2015

    Alternative Investment Award Winners Announced

    Twelve Capital have been awarded the 2015 Alternative Investment Awards for "Innovation in Insurance-Linked Securities" as well as "Independent Insurance Investment Manager of the Year – Switzerland". An online version of the AIA magazine supplement is available here...

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Monday, 01 June 2015

    London's ILS challenge

    “London would have inherent advantages as a centre for insurance-linked securities, but significant obstacles would stand in its way, not least concerns over taxation and the prospect of a U.K. exit from the EU”. Twelve Capital deputy CEO, Christoph Buerer, comments in the following article by SNL Financial. Read more...

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 29 May 2015

    Risk bundling driven by traditional reinsurance market

    The recent discussion of risk bundling has been wrongly aimed at the insurance-linked securities (ILS) market, according to Zurich headquartered ILS manager Twelve Capital, which points out that self-regulation is actually very strong in ILS. Read more...

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 22 May 2015

    How small mutual and cooperative insurers can access regulatory capital

    Raising the additional solvency capital required for Solvency II compliance or financing growth is especially difficult for smaller insurers with limited access to capital markets. Private debt placements have recently become an attractive solution to that problem. Read more...

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 20 May 2015

    Asset Management: Darum verliert die Schweiz weiter an Bedeutung

    Die Schweiz will sich als internationales Asset-Management-Zentrum profilieren. Doch schon jetzt habe London die besseren Karten, behauptet Urs Ramseier von der Schweizer Investmentgesellschaft Twelve Capital. Bitte lesen Sie hier weiter...

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 06 May 2015

    Urs Ramseier on CNBC - Video

    Urs Ramseier, Chairman of Twelve Capital, is interviewed by CNBC Squawk Box about investing in a falling interest rate environment and whether insurance companies are being forced to take on too much risk.

    To watch the interview, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 22 April 2015

    Media Release - Annual Insurance Investment Forum in Rueschlikon

    Institutional Investors should look to insurance for investment opportunities in a low-yield environment, says Twelve Capital at its annual Insurance Investment Forum

    To read the whole press release please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 21 April 2015

    Sandro Kriesch on CNBC - Video

    Sandro Kriesch, Partner at Twelve Capital, is interviewed by CNBC Squawk Box Presenter Karen Tso about "Catastrophe Bonds".

    To watch the interview, please click here or read it here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 08 April 2015

    Twelve Capital win at the Investors Choice Awards 2015 EMEA

    Twelve Capital is proud to announce that they have won the Investors Choice Awards 2015 EMEA, in the "Credit Fund - Long Term Performance" category for the Twelve Insurance Bond Fund.

    To read the whole press release in English, please click here.The German version is available here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 31 March 2015

    InsuranceERM Interview

    Insurers looking to better manage their capital requirements should in most cases issue subordinated (sub) debt rather than buying quota share reinsurance. This has been the conclusion of a study done by Towers Watson. Markus Stricker, a partner responsible for risk management at Twelve Capital, said the report's conclusion - that debt is more of a capital management tool and reinsurance is more of a risk management tool - might have been obvious to some, but it has not stopped many insurers from using reinsurance in this manner.

    To read the whole interview, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 03 March 2015

    The Trading Floor Interview

    John Butler, Partner and Head of Sourcing of Twelve Capital, recently shared his views on current market developments, M&A activities and the future role of the reinsurance market, with Trading Risk magazine.

    If you want to find out why he thinks reinsurance needs to get closer to the finance world, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 27 February 2015

    Investment Outlook 2015

    Twelve Capital shares its view on the Insurance Market 2015. To read the whole Invesment Outlook, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Thursday, 29 January 2015

    Twelve Market Perspectives 2015

    Capital management is vital for insurance companies, as their capacity to write business depends on their ability to maintain a level of capital that satisfies their most important stakeholders: regulators, rating agencies, policyholders and intermediaries.
    To read the whole issue, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Thursday, 08 January 2015

  • Clive O’Connell joins the Board of Directors of Twelve Capital (UK) Ltd.

    Twelve Capital is pleased to announce that Clive O’Connell was appointed a member of the Board of Directors of Twelve Capital (UK) Ltd. To see more information, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Friday, 19 December 2014

    Twelve Capital opens London office

    Twelve Capital opens an office in London. On 1 October Twelve Capital (UK) Limited was authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) as a MiFID investment firm. 

    To read more, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 07 October 2014

    Twelve Capital reinforces ILS Anaytics

    Twelve Capital has engaged in an initiative to strengthen the firm’s analytics capacities. In July 2014 Dr. Jan Kleinn joined Twelve Capital’s ILS team as their Head of ILS Analytics. He will build up a team of analysts covering natural and man-made catastrophes. Twelve Capital is convinced that this is a core expertise and that analytics will remain one of the major alpha generators in the future.

    To read more, click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Monday, 06 October 2014

    Twelve Capital issues the private Catastrophe Bond “Dodeka III”

    Zurich-based independent investment manager Twelve Capital announces the issuance of the private Cat Bond “Dodeka III”. Dodeka III is a USD denominated 10m zero-coupon Cat Bond that expires on 31 July 2015, and covers multi-peril risk in the United States of America. Dodeka III has a well-diversified and balanced structure. In order for the bond to trigger, at least 3 independent events have to reach a predefined loss level.

    Please click here to read the entire media release.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 12 August 2014

    Artemis writes on Dodeka III launch

    Zurich-based insurance-linked securities (ILS) and reinsurance-linked investment management firm Twelve Capital has announced the completion of its fourth privately placed catastrophe bond transaction, Dodeka III a $10m U.S. multi-peril deal.

    Please click here to read the whole article

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 05 August 2014

    Urs Ramseier on CNBC - Video

    Urs Ramseier, Twelve Capital Chairman and CIO, is interviewed by CNBC journalist on "Alternative Investing" programm on CNBC network.

    To listen to the interview, please click here.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 02 July 2014

    Twelve Capital and Urs Ramseier in Trading Risk - 25 June 2014

    Urs Ramseier chairman and co-founder of ILS fund manager Twelve Capital has predicted that catastrophe bond index trackers or exchange-traded funds (ETF) will soon be released to the market as part of a natural evolution of the asset class.

    Please click here to read the full article.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Thursday, 26 June 2014

    Twelve Capital publication in the May 2014 Clear Path Analysis White Paper

    Exploring the evolution of the insurance-linked securities market (ILS) and examining the role of specific instruments in an investor’s portfolio.
    "Insurance-linked securities capital: reinsurance industry threat or saviour?" from Dr. Urs Ramseier, Chaiman and CIO and John Butler, Head of Sourcing and Underwriting. Click here to read the White Paper.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 20 May 2014

    Dr. Urs Ramseier NZZ: Schlechte Aussichten für institutionelle Vermögensverwalter

    Dr. Urs Ramseier über die Bedeutung des Zutritts von Asset-Managern zu den EU-Ländern. Um mehr zu erfahren, klicken Sie hier.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Wednesday, 23 April 2014

    Artemis: Twelve Capital issues $25m Dodeka II, its second private cat bond

    Specialist Swiss-based insurance-linked securities (ILS) and reinsurance-linked investment manager Twelve Capital has completed the issuance of its second private catastrophe bond, the $25m Dodeka II.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 18 March 2014

    Twelve Market Perspectives - January 2014

    The performance of all our portfolios in 2013 was excellent. Our Insurance Bond funds and mandates returned between 11.9% and 13.6%, ILS mandates between 8.5% and 10.1%, and Cat Bond funds between 4.3% and 6.7%. We anticipate a challenging investment environment in 2014. Investors will continue to look for uncorrelated investments and will want to keep the duration of portfolios as short as possible. We see most value in more illiquid assets, as illiquidity premiums are still high compared to levels seen prior to the financial market crisis.

    Please click on the link Twelve Market Perspectives to read details of our 2014 Investment Outlook including our extended offering with all our new products.

    Do not hesitate to contact us directly for further information on info@twelvecapital.com

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 21 January 2014

    High Barriers for Institutional Asset Managers (NZZ on Twelve Capital)

    The outlook for Private Banking is still in doubt. Therefore, the main focus is currently on the asset management industry.

    However, the regulatory environment and limited specialist resources available make it a difficult case.Please read the NZZ article (in German) starting with a paragraph on Twelve Capital.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 21 January 2014

    Twelve Capital to issue Dodeka I, a USD 25m Private Cat Bond – News on Artemis

    Specialist Swiss-based Insurance-linked Securities (ILS) and Reinsurance-linked Investment manager Twelve Capital is issuing its first Private Catastrophe Bond, named Dodeka I, as a way to acquire transformed risk for its more liquid investment strategies.

    http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2014/01/15/twelve-capital-to-issue-dodeka-i-a-25m-private-cat-bond/

    Do not hesitate to contact us directly for further information on info@twelvecapital.com.

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 21 January 2014

    First Private Cat Bond by Twelve Capital (Dodeka I) - News on Trading Risk

    Twelve Capital is set to launch its first Private Cat Bond, Dodeka I, a USD 25m US multi-peril deal that is expected to generate double-digit returns.

    http://www.trading-risk.com/twelve-to-launch-first-25mn-cat-bond-lite 

    Do not hesitate to contact us directly for further information on info@twelvecapital.com

    Source: Twelve Capital

    Tuesday, 21 January 2014