Update Typhoon Hagibis
Typhoon Hagibis made landfall on 12 October 2019 in Izu Peninsula, Japan, equivalent to a category 1 or a weak category 2 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of about 145km/h up to 155km/h.
Hagibis caused severe flood and wind damage across various prefectures in the North-Eastern part of Japan. One of the most affected prefectures was Nagano.
According to 7pm updates from NHK online Japanese Newspapers as at 20 October 2019, it is known that 80 people died with 17 people still missing. Levees at 135 different locations on 71 rivers across seven prefectures collapsed. According to NHK more than 52’400 homes were flooded and more than 4’100 houses were destroyed or partially damaged.
In 2018, the southern part of Japan was affected by severe rain-driven floods. More than 12’000 structures were reported as affected across 12 prefectures. The modelled losses at that time were USD 2-4bn. As at the end of 2018, Aon Benfield reported the insured loss to be USD 2.7bn.
The figures mentioned above may indicate that Typhoon Hagibis flood driven market losses (excluding the wind-driven impact) may end up in the double-digit billion range. However, it should be noted that the final pay-out of flood claims will be dependent upon the underlying exposure affected and with that firm estimates are more difficult to quantify. Generally, the pay-outs are typically stepped according to the level of water damage sustained and limited by the so-called “sub-ordinary” policy limits, which represent a fraction of the total sum insured of the subject structures affected.

Twelve Capital reiterates that at this stage, it is too early to determine reliable estimates for economic or insured losses. None of the major modelling companies have yet released any market loss indications (although anticipated to do so this upcoming week), in line with the firm’s expectation that the ultimate assessment of the insured losses for this event may be a more extended process than usual.
The above-mentioned figures remain highly uncertain and have to be viewed with caution.

Given the current level of information, Twelve Capital expects no impact on Cat Bond exposures. However, there may be some potential performance impact and certainly erosion of deductibles to selected private collateralised retrocession contracts with exposure to Japan.

Update “Saddleridge wildfire” in California
According to the California Fire authority, 80% of the “Saddleridge fire” is contained. All evacuation orders are now lifted. Latest reports indicate that 31 structures have been damaged. On this basis, Twelve Capital does not see the potential for substantial insured losses or any impact on its ILS portfolios.

Other recent eventsTropical Storm Nestor has made landfall in Florida as a Tropical storm in the panhandle of Florida on 19 October 2019 with winds of up 96km/h. Local tornadoes were reported with some homes and businesses damaged across the state. No major impact on the insurance market and ILS portfolios expected.

Monday, 21 October 2019

Typhoon Hagibis
Typhoon Hagibis made landfall around 12:00 MESZ on 12 October 2019 in Izu Peninsula, Japan.
Depending on sources the intensity at landfall was equivalent to a category 1 or a weak category 2 hurricane with sustained wind speeds of about 145 km/h up to 155km/h.
Hagibis caused severe flood and wind damage across various prefectures in the northeastern part of Japan before passing over the Pacific Ocean early Sunday morning. Transport and communication systems were highly impacted and large-scale power outages occurred following the typhoon. Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. announced on Sunday that it expects power to be restored throughout the main affected areas over the next few hours. According to various Japanese Newspapers as at 9 p.m. on Sunday local time, the typhoon had claimed the lives of 34 people in 10 prefectures, with 17 people missing.

Known Damage
Unprecedented rainfall was experienced in many prefectures, causing levees to break, river defences to fail or dams to execute emergency discharges.
Amongst the worst hit prefectures,  are Nagano and Fukushima prefectures, west and north of Tokyo, respectively, where the Chikuma River and Abukuma River burst their banks and caused severe flooding in residential and industrial areas including transport stations.

Initial assessment
At this stage, it is too early  to determine reliable estimates for economic or insured losses.
Furthermore, Twelve Capital expects the ultimate assessment of the insured losses for this event to be a more complex and therefore  more extended process than usual.
This veiw is primarily driven by Twelve Capital’s expectation that the major drivers for the insured losses for Typhoon Hagibis will be flood claims. Generally, these type of claims take more time to be reported and therefore ultimately reliably assessed than purely wind-driven losses.
Previous events however may provide some indication  of possible loss ranges for the impact of Typhoon Hagibis on an insured market level.

Similar events in the past:
Typhoon Faxai
Faxai made landfall in September 2019 in a comparable location and with a comparable intensity to Hagibis, but with substantially less flood damage reported. It is estimated to have caused an insured market loss of USD 3- 9bn, depending on the different modelling agents.

Japan Floods in 2018
In 2018, the southern part of Japan was affected by severe rain-driven floods. More than 12'000 structures were reported as affected across 12 prefectures. According to AIR the insured loss of flood event in 2018 was estimated to be between USD 2-4bn. As at the end of 2018, Aon Benfield reported the insured loss to be USD 2.7bn. A comparison of the population density of the areas affected by the 2018 flood losses with the population density of the areas impacted by Typhoon Hagibis (assuming similar flood impacts), indicates that flood driven market losses (excluding the wind-driven impact) may end up in at least, the range of USD 3-5bn.

External sources: 
This morning Bloomberg Intelligence indicated the Typhoon Hagibis insured loss range to be possibly within USD 5-10bn worth of insurance claims.
The  above-mentioned figures are highly uncertain and have to be considered with caution. The ultimate assessment of insured losses for this event will be more complex and therefore are expected to require a more extended process than is usual.
The current level of information indicates limited impact (if any) on cat bond exposures and potentially, some performance impact including erosion of deductibles, to selected private collateralised retrocession contracts with exposure to Japan.
Twelve Capital will monitor the situation over the forthcoming days closely and issue a more detailed update with impact estimates once information and corresponding assessments are deemed more reliable. 

Other recent events
Wildfires in California 2019
According to the California Fire Authority spokesman, Scott McLean “… September and October are the worst two months historically every year in California…”, however, the current exposure is only six fires covering an area of 61 km2, of which 56% is already contained. That compares with 2’047 km2 in 2017 and 3’545 km2 in 2018, which were two of the worst years in history with regards to insured wildfire losses.
So far, the wildfire affected area in 2019 is  just a fraction of affected areas of the previous two years. On the other hand, with the “Saddleridge fire” being very close to the city of Los Angeles, there is potential for significant fire losses, should the fire push southward with the dry Santa Ana winds. As at today 42% of the “Saddleridge fire” exposed area is reported to be contained. Some of the 100’000 people evacuated over the last few days have been allowed to return home.
On this basis and unless the Saddleridge fire develops adversely, Twelve Capital does not see the potential for substantial insured losses for its portfolios.

Monday, 14 October 2019

Summary
There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic basin. Whilst some low-pressure areas are currently being monitored and might turn into tropical storms, they are not expected to cause a threat to populated areas.
In the North-East Pacific, there are currently no active storms or areas where tropical cyclone formation is likely over the next days.
In the West Pacific, there is currently one tropical storm system (named “Hagibis”) on approach towards Japan. Latest model indications show that this system will pass east of the main Japanese islands in around five days. As always, significant uncertainty with regards to track and intensity (currently a cat 3 hurricane) remain at this early stage and Twelve Capital will actively monitor the system.

Other recent events
There have been no noteworthy additional events in the past week. Whilst none of the recent events cause significant concern on an individual basis, some partial deductible erosion is possible in aggregate contracts, especially from typhoon Faxai. In Cat Bond transactions, this is already fully reflected in broker valuations. In Private ILS transactions, this is reflected through the fair valuation approach.

Monday, 7 October 2019